The Inner Circle Contenders One... Feat. 3X NBA Champ Danny Green

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Pod Timestamp:

I’ve attached my notes from the pod with Danny Green, a three-time NBA champion and one of two players to beat LeBron James and Steph Curry in the Finals. I've also included a timestamped guide to the episode and a few edits that may or may not be included. Enjoy!

0:00 - 1:15: Intro

1:15 - 5:47: DG's Playoff Runs

5:47 - 9:22: Breaking Down Boston

9:22 - 12:55: Where There's Thunder...

12:55 - 20:10: Marc and DG Argue Over MVP (and More Thunder)

20:10 - 30:24: Cleveland and Crew

30:24 - 35:13: DG's New York Knicks

35:13 - 42:35: Timberwolves Time

42:35 - 47:36: Inner Circle Dark Horses

47:36 - 51:00: DG’s Championship LIGHTNING ROUND!

Boston:

They are up and down right now. Between PO runs and the Olympics, it’s been a long few years for these guys, and that might be nipping at their heels.

• 2nd in finishing at the rim

• 13th in three-point percentage (50% of shots from three).

When it rains, it pours":

• 3rd (9.6) average margin of victory.

• 1st (17) win margin.

Derrick White’s impending regression to the mean:

• 23/24: PnR PPD 1.074 — 25 Per 100 Poss

• 24/25 PnR PPD 0.959 — 25 per 100 Poss

White playing at a 1.074 PPD PnR threat unlocks their offense. He’s a better player than someone scoring under 1.000 PPD. His process is always top-notch, and he’s one of those guys who hits singles every time; I’ll always bet on him figuring it out.

Oklahoma City:

Nothing lights up our Low Man Help group chat like Oklahoma City. Well, Bradley Beal comes close, but that’s another story.

Danny and I have been arguing with each other for almost 20 years now; we’re good at it! We both can be stubborn; he’s from New York, and I’m Italian…

The Andy Bailey poll referenced during the pod regarding the MVP debate between Jokic vs. SGA .

OKC is fantastic; I have watched a ton of their games and consistently marvel at the ferocity they play with on both sides of the ball. They do a great job of owning the paint (getting touches on O and not allowing touches on D).

Offensive:

• 3rd (67.1%) of their possessions have a paint touch.

• 1st (12.1) TOs committed per game.

Defense:

• 2nd (61.5%) of their possessions have a paint touch.

• 1st (18.6) TOs forced per game.

PRESSURE. No word inculpates them more.

They put pressure on the rim and don't let you put pressure on the rim with their switches and early rotations. They’re awesome.

I fully understand that I am on the other side of the fence, as I think conventionally thinking about this team and SGA as the best player on a championship team.

I'm not saying he isn't great—he is, but his game translates better (as a #1 option) to regular-season success (which he's had) than to playoff success (which he hasn't had… yet).

The reason is the shooting threat, specifically his inability to beat a team four out of seven times by shooting the ball. This allows teams to play a style of defense against SGA that keeps their defensive shell tight; they do not have to stretch out to 35 feet like MIN did vs. Luka last season.

During the playoffs last season, SGA was Blitzed in the PnR 2.75% of the time. For reference:

• Curry: 39.1%

• Dame: 25%

• Ant: 17.9%

• Luka: 13.5%

• Kyrie: 11.6%

• Maxey: 9.64%

In ISO situations SGA was doubled 4% of the time.

This % was not in the top 10 of players in ISO situations. Teams are willing to “bet” on SGA, not beating them himself.

Here are the two SGA deep dives from last year that

Adam Mares

is referencing in this clip from the All-NBA podcast.

Part I: SGA might be an 82-game MVP, but can he be the best player on a 16-win team?

Part II: SGA's Best and Worst Pick-and-Roll Coverages

SGA is up from 3.6 3PA per game last season to 5.8 3PA this season. I do not believe that is by accident. He can develop; he has limitless potential. But currently, I do not think he’s capable of shooting the ball at a clip or distance that scares teams enough to take the ball out of his hands like the best lead guards in the playoffs.

I believe this will be an ongoing point of emphasis between Danny and me for quite some time.

Cleveland:

Since his rookie season, I have been buying all the Evan Mobley stock I could find on the open market. His physical gifts, mixed with the basketball IQ I saw during his rookie year (I had a client on CLE), sold me on a generational player who lived inside his potential.

Mobley has a chance to become one of the rarest breeds in the game, a five-tool PnR Big. The five tools a big can have in the two-man action are:

1. Vertical Threat (Lob).

2. Spacing Threat (Threes).

3. Pocket Playmaker (Dunker or 2nd side).

4. Pocket Scorer (Middy, Floater, or Lay-up).

5. Post vs. Switches (Mouse in the house).

He can also create rotations via ball handling on Grab & Go actions into attacks for himself or DHOs with the guards/wing on CLE. He is a match-up nightmare, which is one reason why DG and I are both so high on CLE.

CLE Team Stats:

• 1st in offensive rating

• 8th in defensive rating

• 2nd highest point differential in the league

However, over the past two weeks, their offense has fallen to 7th and defense to 24th (no bueno).

Fun CLE Shooting Stats:

• 1st 3P%

• 2nd in ATB Threes.

• 2nd in Corner Threes.

• 1st in mid-range shooting percentage.

• 17th in finishing at the rim (I don’t love this one).

Here are some fun Garland PnR “Breaking” the Drop Big reads for no other reason than I am so happy that Darius is back after a brutal injury-laden year last season.

Denver:

Jokic. Simple.

I don’t like to be on the other side of the table from Jokic in a seven game series.

Indiana:

+15.3

That number represents Andrew Nembhard's net rating per CLG. It’s in the 98th percentile across the entire NBA.

Indiana’s record when Nembhard plays this season is 19-9 (.678 winning percentage). That’s a 55.5-win pace, and as my friend Larry David would say…

I wrote more about the Pacers and Nembhard here, for

Quinn Everts

if you want to check it out.

DG is NOT in on IND having a chance in the East; it’s another island I stand alone on, but I’m good with it.

I love the problems they can present in a seven-game series. I don’t think they’re the favorite by any means vs. BOS or CLE, but they have a boxer's chance due to how well the parts fit together.

This season, they have two of the top three PnR Combos in the NBA (filtered for Top 40 by volume). Both of these actions create hell for teams regarding what coverages work best. With Turner’s shooting and Pascal’s ability to shoot it and post switches, there aren't many good options.

• Haliburton + Pascal: 1.309 PPD (16 per 100)

• Haliburton + Turner: 1.184 PPD (22 Per 100)

Fun IND Stats (since January 1st):

• 3rd in offensive rating

• 3rd in defensive rating

^ Nembhard games…

Minnesota:

I’m on this island solo too. A common theme here.

If you want to know why I think this team has someone special inside the sum of their parts you can check out my notes here:

ELO Rating:

Friend of the program

Neil Paine

keeps a running Forecast of NBA Championship odds based on three years worth of data from the regular reason, PO and Vegas odds. He’s a smart dude… Here is NP’s current snap shot of where the league sits right now:

🏀 2024-25 NBA Forecast and Estimated RAPTOR Ratings 📈