Part I: SGA might be an 82-game MVP, but can he be the best player on a 16-win team?
This is Part I of a multipart series on SGA: shooting mechanics, PnR coverages, and GTO vs. FEP thinking.
Nikola Jokic is currently favored to win his third MVP trophy; FanDuel currently has his odds to win at -230, and nipping at his heels is Shai Gilgeous Alexander (SGA) at +330 odds.
SGA’s had an exceptional season; he was named an All-Star starter, will almost certainly be a 1st-team All-NBA player, and has a chance to win the league MVP, according to FanDuel. He’s been the catalyst for a young Thunder team, driving them straight out of the “fun league pass watch” category into a contender for an NBA championship.
The 2024 Playoffs - Same Same, But Different:
SGA was an essential team member in his previous playoff runs but not the alpha. He made great plays in both series and wasn’t scared of the moment. However, both times, the buck didn’t stop with him; he wasn’t being schemed against by the other teams the way he will be this year.
PnR is the primary action for almost any lead ball handler in the league. For SGA, it has been the epicenter of his game every year since entering the league. Yet, in his prior two trips to the playoffs, SGA’s PnR usage decreased significantly.
The numbers in the charts below are from Synergy and represent SGA’s PnR, including passes.
SGA averaged 2.3 more minutes per game in this series vs. the Warriors than in the regular season, but his primary epicenter, the PnR, decreased by 23.8%. It’s entirely possible that you can chalk this up to being a rookie. That’s fine.
In the bubble, SGA averaged 5.2 more minutes per game during this series vs. the Rockets than in the regular season, but his primary epicenter, the PnR, decreased by 31.4%. This is something, not everything, but it’s not nothing.
Both teams were built to play the PnR coverage SGA struggles with most, especially the Rockets: switches, particularly one of the soft variety.
Soft switches allow the ball handler to shoot the ball immediately and aim to take away any downhill driving advantage. It’s a PnR coverage that “Dares You” to shoot the ball.
SGA struggles with this specific coverage because it takes away his biggest strength of getting downhill and cracking the defensive shell for:
Finishing opportunity.
Creating a two-to-the-ball help situation where he can be a playmaker for his teammates.
The struggle vs. this coverage centers around shooting, specifically shooting mechanics.
SGA’s shooting percentages say that he is an above-average to good shooter—he’s shooting 37.8% from three this season on low volume, only 3.5 attempts per game.
His shooting mechanics have the characteristics of a “push” shot, meaning he primarily generates power from his anterior chain for his shot. This creates a more limited shot profile than top-end playoff point guards like Steph Curry, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, and Trae Young, who all generate more power from their posterior chain.
All the lead guards listed above have":
Advanced in the playoffs:
All have made it to the conference finals; three have made the NBA Finals, and two are Champions.
2. Shoot high volume from three-point range:
Combined, they averaged 8.1 attempts per game this season from three, about 2.5x more attempts per game than SGA.
3. Increase their PnR volume in the playoffs:
Combined, they average about two more PnRs per playoff game vs. regular season game.
To win multiple playoff series, your offense must have optionality. You must constantly problem-solve coverages and, above all else, keep yourself and your team from being funneled into a box.
The shooting volume and, more specifically, the mechanics of all the lead guards above allow their PnR actions to create optionality for the offense. There is not one specific shot you can funnel them into and feel great about giving it to them.
Their shooting mechanics allow for a diverse shot profile, which SGA can not create with his “push” shot mechanics.
Shooting Interlude:
Shooting the basketball is an exercise in transferring energy. I have worked with three NBA players on changing their shot and produced an average jump of 5.8% in three-point percentage. If you want to read about my philosophy on shooting and see the changes to an NBA player’s shot, please click on this link to check out Malik Beasley’s before and after shooting mechanics.
SGA is shooting 37.8% from three this season on 3.5 attempts per game.
One specific shot, a step back three, is driving his shooting success. His comfort shooting this shot has driven his overall shooting numbers up this season.
SGA is 30/108 on any three-point shot that isn’t of the step-back variety; that’s good for 30.5%.
The step-back three is a friend and ally to “push” shot mechanics. It does two things that enhance the shooting mechanics to their peak level.
It creates the most comfortable body position for loading the shot’s power in the anterior chain.
It creates space between the shooter and their defender, allowing the naturally lower launch point of the “push” shot to be used without being blocked.
Voice Over - - Breakdown of SGA’s Shooting Mechanics Shooting Three Types of Shots:
Step-Back Three (3), Catch & Shoot (2), and Non-Step-Back Dribble Three (2).
To SGA’s credit, he seems to understand how the step-back can give his shooting mechanics the best possible chance of success. If not consciously, then at least subconsciously.
Over 52% of SGA’s total threes this season have been step-backs.
74.5% of all off-the-dribble threes have been step-backs.
Dig deeper into the weeds, and of all the three-point shots SGA has taken during his primary epicenter action, the PnR, a whopping 84.4%, have been step-backs.
I think it’s fair to say that SGA has figured out what shot works best for his shooting mechanics and has decided only to hunt this specific shot to enhance his chances of success.
Game Theory Optimal vs. Fully Exploitative Play:
In Seth Partnow’s book Midrange Theory, there is an entire chapter dedicated to the theory behind a famous Draymond Green quote:
“There are 82-game players, then there are 16-game players.”
In Midrange Theory, Seth digs into why that quote rings true and sums it up perfectly when discussing the importance of a roll. He says:
“The best must be able to do their best against the best. If you can’t do this, you can’t exist in the 16.”
It’s a filtration system, and the switch from teams using primarily Game Theory Optimal (GTO) coverages during the regular season to Fully Exploitative Play (FEP) in the postseason is a significant part of the filter.
GTO aims to maximize expectations against a range of possible opponents. These are a team’s habits during the 82; when they are playing back-to-backs or three games in four days, and guys are getting into a hotel at 3 am to play that night. There isn’t time to implement something special for that night's specific opponent all the time; GTO is their core stuff, the stuff they worked on back in October during training camp.
FEP is meant to perform best against a specific opponent. For example, when you only see one team for the next two weeks, and you’re trying to beat them four times out of a possible seven games. This is when it’s time to lock in on pressure points for that specific team. Things like:
Where is our opponent finding the most success in creating defensive rotations, and how can we prevent our defensive shell from cracking?
Where do we think our opponent is weakest, and how do we press on that specific pressure point as much as possible?
For SGA, this is the first time he will be at the top of opposing teams' FEP coverage schemes in the playoffs. It will be a crash course in being able to problem-solve during the 16, and one specific question will stand out above all the rest:
Can you shoot the ball well enough from three to beat us four times?
If yes, then we must change our coverage to take away these three-point shots.
If no, then we must play a coverage that invites three-point shots and shrinks our defensive shell.
That same question has been asked of similar All-NBA lead guards (downhill-specific) during the Sprawl-ball era, such as Russell Westbrook, Ben Simmons, and, most recently, Ja Morant.
The regular season allows this lead guard archetype to keep their warts strategically camouflaged. Teams are working on their big-picture coverage habits (GTO), not trying to install a coverage that would take specific actions away (FEP) during a 1/82 game.
Ja Morant is currently the closest thing to an SGA comparison. He plays the same position, has been named an All-NBA player, and also shoots a variation of a “push” shot on his three-point attempts. He’s recently been to the playoffs three times as the alpha of a team and twice as a top-two seed.
During those trips to the playoffs, Morant faced open invitations from teams to shoot as much as he wanted as they shrank their defensive shell behind the ball by going “under” on his PnR actions.
Here’s a look at his winning percentage in the regular season (GTO) vs. the playoffs (FEP) over those three years.
Ja Morant Winning Percentage (Regular Season vs. Playoff)
Morant is one of the most explosive players in the league, and his relentless downhill attacks have powered the Grizzlies to a winning percentage of 0.602 during the regular season vs. GTO coverages. But despite being a top-2 seed in two of his three trips to the playoffs, he's only won a single playoff series.
Here’s a taste of what GTO regular season PnR coverage vs. FEP playoff coverage looks like:
The Pacers are going “Over” PnR actions on Ben Simmons in a regular season game (just let that sink in for a second) vs. the Hawks, virtually begging Ben Simmons to shoot the ball from the free-throw line.
PART II WILL FEATURE:
1. How the best teams in the west guarded SGA’s PnR this season.
2. How his PnR might be guarded in the playoffs.
3. Counters the Thunder could use to combat these FEP playoff coverages.