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Boston/OKC or The Field? FEAT... Neil Paine

Take a deep dive into Neil's current NBA Forecasting model and estimated RAPTOR—Neil's years at the iconic 538 and his time in the Atlanta Hawks have shaped his modeling systems.

Neil Paine is back!!

Neil’s NBA forecast model has two versions: stats only and composite.

The composite model has everything the stats-only version has, plus updated future odds from Vegas factored in. We are referencing the composite model during our conversation.

Neil’s most recent forecast and estimated RAPTOR player ratings are here. For more information about how it works, see below. Also, check out the MLB, NFL, NHL,

Neil’s Substack
🏀 2024-25 NBA Forecast and Estimated RAPTOR Ratings 📈
The following page contains my 2024-25 season predictions for each NBA team, and Estimated RAPTOR player ratings. For more info about how it works, see below. Also check out the MLB, NFL, NHL and WNBA versions…
Read more

As always, The Low Man Help Podcast would not be possible without our outstanding producer, Jacob Sutton—Check out his work here!

Podcast Timeline:

  • 00:00 - Introduction to Neil's NBA Forecast Models

  • 02:50 - The Evolution of NBA Playoff Predictions

  • 04:35 - The Eastern Conference: Boston or The Field?

  • 07:17 - Celtics vs. Cavaliers: A Deep Dive

  • 09:01 - Cleveland's Rise and Team Dynamics

  • 11:26 - The Knicks: Potential and Challenges

  • 13:23 - The Western Conference: Oklahoma City or The Field?

  • 21:30 - The Competitive Landscape of the Western Conference

  • 24:52 - Lakers' Strategy: Integrating New Talent

  • 27:46 - Evaluating the Denver Nuggets' Championship Potential

  • 31:33 - OKC's Playoff Readiness and Defensive Strategies

  • 36:37 - The Role of Self-Awareness in Player Performance

  • 41:25 - MVP Race: SGA vs. Jokic

Neil’s Pieces:

Here are the two pieces that Neil references during the pod.

The first is a look from last season into how the two players battling for MVP don’t play anything alike.

Neil’s Substack
It’s Cool That Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić Are the Two Best Players in Basketball
While I have been skeptical of some runaway analytics trends in the NBA — are we at the point where 3-pointers do need to cool it some? — the common criticisms of the league can also be annoying sometimes…
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This pieces dives into how even though the goal is to win, team in the NBA all go about it very different. No matter what you might think about all NBA, looking the same, it’s actually anything but cookie cutter when it comes to how teams are playing.

Neil’s Substack
Does the NBA Have More Great Teams Than Ever — Or Just More Bad Ones?
With all the off-court drama leading up to this week’s NBA trade deadline, it’s easy to forget that games are still being played — and many of them are producing some pretty extreme results this season…
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Marzie Doing Puppy In The Window Things…

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