Part II: SGA's Best and Worst Pick-and-Roll Coverages

Part II.

To check out Part I on SGA’s shooting mechanics and GTO vs. FEP thinking, click this link!!

Best Of The West:

The top teams have experimented extensively, trying to get a lot of looks on film to decide what they like the most if they get into a series with the Thunder. 

The sample size is small for some of these actions, and it’s essential to understand that numbers don’t tell the whole story. To formulate a complete picture, you must marry the numbers with the eye test. That’s what teams must do when determining what coverages to deploy when their season is on the line in the playoffs.

While all individual PnR coverages are unique, some can be grouped by their aggressive or passive nature. 

The following summarizes how the best teams in the Western Conference have guarded the SGA PnR this season over a 15-game sample size and how/why SGA has cooked or struggled vs. specific coverages.

Breakdown of the 15 games logged for data in this piece:

LA Clippers (3), Minnesota (3), Golden State (3), Denver (2), Sacramento (1), Dallas (1), New Orleans (1), Phoenix (1).

Grading Table:

• Shooting Foul: 2 points

• Wide Open 3 Point Shot Created: 0.5 points

• Advantage Finishing Opportunity Created or Offensive Rebound: 0.5 points

• “And 1” Opportunity: 3 points

The Drop Coverage Options:

Four coverages make up this collection: 

1. Over + Drop 

2. Down + Drop

3. Over + Veer Switch

4. Over + Level → Drop

These actions involve SGA’s primary defender going “over” the screening action and the secondary defender playing in Drop coverage.

These coverages invite downhill drives for finishes or playmaking opportunities; SGA is one of the game's more controlled and crafty finishers. 

(Voice Over Breakdown of Drop Coverage vs. SGA)

I listened to Chris Herring on the Lowe Post Pod yesterday, and he mentioned the Thunder were the #1 team in the NBA vs. “Drop” coverages. It’s not hard to see why.

SGA is always on balance when attacking downhill, has excellent finishing footwork + handwork, and rarely, if ever, makes a bad read of finishing, shooting a middy or passing (pocket or lob) vs. the “Drop” big.

SGA shreds “Drop” looks, and giving them to him is not wise.

Drop is a standard GTO coverage for teams; every team has it in their bag. Giving SGA a consistent diet of these looks in the playoffs will result in packing your bags for Cancun and the Thunder moving on to the next round.

Aggressive Secondary Defender “at the level” Coverage Option:

Two coverages make up this collection: 

1. Over -> Show/Blitz

2. SGA Refusal with Secondary Defender at the level for coverage

These actions involve SGA’s primary defender going “over” the screening action and the secondary defender playing at the screen's level. 

SGA hunts the refusal when he sees the secondary defender at the level.

The refusal allows SGA to remain the decision maker in a 4 vs. 3 situation.

Level -> Show/Blitz coverage promotes a pocket pass to the screener; this makes someone other than SGA the decision maker in a 4 vs. 3 situation.

Having someone other than SGA be the decision maker in a 4 vs. 3 situation is suboptimal for the Thunder’s offense.

(Voice Over Breakdown of Blitz Coverage vs. SGA)

The teams that successfully used a Level → Show/Blitz coverage deployed it as a surprise, not in a steady diet. When you give a steady diet to SGA and the Thunder, they set the screen higher up the floor and pick the coverage apart. 

The Keep Our Shell Options: Switches & Under

Three different coverages make up this collection: 

1. At the level Switch

2. Soft Switch

3. Under + No Help

All actions logged contain the screener being a screener; these are non-ghost screening plays.

(Voice Over Breakdown of Soft Switch Coverage vs. SGA)

The soft switch invites the offense player to shoot one specific shot: a pull-up three-pointer going downhill, not a step-back three.

This is not the best three-point shot for SGA’s shooting mechanics, and that makes all the difference in the world here. If you want to know why this shot isn’t the best for his mechanics, click this link to check out Part I.

The “under” coverage can be deployed when the screener is a big instead of the soft switch. It achieves the same desired outcome of allowing SGA to shoot a three that is NOT a step-back and shuts off his preferred action, the advantage downhill attack.

During Chris Herring’s appearance on The Lowe Post podcast, he mentioned that the Thunder are the most efficient team in the league in PnR—they create the most drives and generate 23 wide-open three-point shots per game. 

SGA is the engine powering the Thunder’s drive-and-kick offense; he’s terrific at getting downhill and generating quality offense for himself and others. The numbers and eye test support that he is elite when getting downhill, which leaves the burning question of GTO vs. FEP coverages:

Why make it easier on him by going “over” his actions when he shoots the ball at such a low volume?

SGA is lightyears past the Ben Simmons edit from Part I regarding shooting gravity. However, the volume of 3.5 three-point attempts per game doesn’t exactly scream that SGA is hunting shots from deep.

Going “Over” the PnR when covering SGA fuels everything Herring referenced on the pod.

Over’s unleash SGA downhill and ignite the Thunder offense.

They create the need for “Veer” switches to account for Chet’s shooting gravity. These Veer actions lead to cross-matches of bigs on an island with SGA, which help fuel the Thunder’s ISO offense (also the most efficient in the league).

(Voice Over Breakdown of “Under” Coverage vs. SGA)

Minnesota's “Under” action at the POA keeps its shell from cracking and prevents the need for a Veer switch to account for Chet’s shooting.

The Thunder Special - - Ghost Screen:

Three different coverages make up this collection: 

1. Switch

2. No Switch

3. Blitz

All the actions logged contain the screener not being a screener; these are ghost screening plays where the screener is slipping out early, a decoy whose goal is to create a panic-thinking moment among defenders.

One particular ghost screen partner stands out above the rest, Isaiah Joe. He is the only Thunder player who can consistently create a genuine panic-thinking moment for the defense.

The thing that separates Joe from any of his Thunder counterparts is simple: shooting. 

Elite-level shooting must be involved to create a panic-thinking moment; otherwise, what’s there to panic about?

This season, Joe is shooting 92 / 204 (45.1%) from the three-point range on catch-shoot opportunities. His shot contains efficient mechanics and excellent shot prep footwork, allowing him to get it off quickly while maintaining good rhythm + balance.

The Warriors, Nuggets, Clippers, and Celtics have put two coverages on film to give this action the most problems.

1. Stop/Down -> Switch:

(I asked a few friends in the league how they would communicate this coverage, and this vocabulary made the most sense.)

(Voice Over Breakdown of Stop/Down → Switch Coverage vs. IJ + SGA Ghost Action)

The key is to cut off SGA’s access to one side of the floor as a driving option. It's easier said than done; it takes effort, communication, and trust in your teammates. When done well, it has neutralized the Joe ghost action better than anything else on film.

2. Blitz -> Backside Rotation:

The goal of this coverage is the same as any other blitz action: get the ball out of SGA’s hands and make someone else beat us. Seeing Ty Lue, Steve Kerr, and Mike Malone deploy the coverage during a ghost action was creative and fresh!

(Voice Over Breakdown of Blitz coverage vs. IJ + SGA Ghost screen action)

This is the defense dictating the terms of engagement for the ghost action; at its core, this coverage says that we’re good with someone else beating us, but it won’t be SGA. 

Both coverages aim to take away the ghost action's primary and secondary advantages:

• Primary: Get SGA to play 4 vs. 4 in the middle of the court.

• Secondary: Create an open catch-and-shoot three-point opportunity for a 45% shooter. 

Even if these coverages give up a long closeout that Joe can attack via drive, they’ve at least switched the primary decision maker from SGA to Joe, which again is suboptimal for the Thunder's offense.

Between the 15 games against Western PO teams and the game against the Celtics, the odds on Eastern Conference favorites SGA ran 60 ghost screen actions, scoring a blistering 1.516 PPP. 

That’s pretty, pretty, pretty good, as the great Larry David would say.

The Down -> Switch and Blitz -> Backside rotation coverage offers creative solutions to slow down one of the Thunder's most effective actions. At 1.516 PPP, this is an action that any team looking to beat the Thunder in a playoff series will need to solve to advance.

Moving Forward & Potential Solutions:

I do not believe teams will play coverages where they go “Over” the screen with the primary defender and play in “Drop” with the secondary defender vs. SGA in the playoffs. He’s a beast going downhill, and it’s pretty clear by the numbers and the film that he demolishes these types of coverages. 

He’s faced some variation of this coverage combination 48 times over the 15 games logged and scored 1.427 PPP with only three turnovers and seven fouls drawn. This type of PnR defense is built for Cancun, not the playoffs.

SGA will see a steady mix of switches and hard shows/blitz actions in the PnR. Both coverages tap into a more suboptimal outcome than SGA attacking downhill.

Over the 15 games logged, he faced these coverage combinations 70 times and scored 0.964 PPP, with five turnovers and only two fouls drawn. This is the FEP type of PnR defense built for the playoffs.

The Thunder know what types of coverage will be used in the playoffs; they’re among the league's “smartest” teams. 

1. Gordon Hayward: 

His shooting, gravity, and secondary playmaking will help to give a better option on the weak side than Dort or Giddy when SGA gets the ball to the short roll in a 4 vs. 3 situation from hard shows/blitz actions. 

2. SGA could shoot lights out:

It’s possible. He’s incredibly talented and knows what types of shots he wants to get.

The playoffs will be the ultimate stress test on his shooting. I will be focused on what types of shots SGA shoots and their volume breakdown more than his percentages.

3. Creative counters in the “ghost” action from Daigneault:

The IJ + SGA “Ghost” action has been a significant part of the Thunder’s PnR success in the regular season. However, I think some teams have coverages on tape that can dilute its potency to a degree.

Mixing in some creative counters will be vital to keeping this element of their offense humming.

One option is to introduce some variation into the general offensive flow via Joe’s movement after the “ghost”:

I’ve yet to see Joe slip one of these and get into the short roll pocket all year instead of popping. Guys like Bruce Brown and Gary Payton II made this short roll/slip action extremely effective during runs to the title for the past two NBA Champions when screening for Murray and Curry. This would be a nice wrinkle that might get defenders back to potential panic-thinking moments.

(Joe may have done this action before, and I may have missed it, but I didn’t see it during the over 500 PnR actions I watched for this piece.)

Or he can go the traditional route and get a counter in via set play:

The other day, Ryan Pannone posted a great tweet that featured one of Brad Stevens's favorite sets to run against a switching defense (linked). This specific action could easily be mixed into the Thunder's “ghost” package for Joe. He’s a much smaller finisher than Tatum, but there’s the element of surprise here.

These playoffs are not made or break for SGA’s career—far from it. He’s a highly talented young player whose development will benefit significantly from the information learned during this year's playoff.

I’m excited to see how SGA meets the challenge of FEP playoff coverages, and I can’t wait to see him continue to build on what has been a standout season!