This NBA season, Danny Green and I will follow the NBA via the Low Man Help Podcast!
Danny needs no introduction, but if you’re unfamiliar with Danny, then allow me to introduce you to the one and only Danny Green:
15 Year NBA Vet.
3 Time NBA Champion (2014, 2019 and 2020).
NCAA Champion (2009).
Record for Most Three Points Made In An NBA Finals (Previously).
All Around Good Guy!!
** The Low Man Help Podcast would not be possible without our outstanding producer,
- Check out his work here!
I’ve attached my notes for the Eastern Conference Groups from the podcast and a few edits that may or may not be included in the episode.
Group winners are highlighted in bold.
Episode Timestamps:
All Odds + East Group A - 1:14
West Group A - 9:00
East Group B - 18:22
West Group B - 23:11
East Group C - 28:45
West Group C - 33:50
Disappointing Teams - 40:43
LMH vs. Vegas - 56:25
Group A:
New York, Philadelphia, Orlando, Charlotte, and Brooklyn.
Why New York?
KAT is the #1 Screener (min 150) in the league in the PnR at 1.161 PPD (per second spectrum).
^^ 33 players qualify, pretty much the starting 5’s in the league.
GTO vs. FEP: This is why New York went and got KAT. He allows them to play a two-man game with Brunson, which has no fun defensive solutions.
New York’s stiffest competition in the group is Philadelphia (+160), which features a big man in Embiid, who is most likely to play Drop coverage.
I don’t see Philadelphia switching the action and leaving Embiid on an island with Brunson for the entire game. There could also be a minutes restriction on Embiid in his first game back.
It might look sluggish in the 82 at times, but when it gets to the do-or-die games, New York has a two-man game that can’t be put in a box, and that’s a big deal!
Mikal Bridges - Is he the biggest individual disappointment in the league at the start of the season?
New York → Brooklyn trade:
4 Unprotected 1st
1 Protected 1st via Bucks (2025)
1 Pick Swap 2028 via Knicks
Stats through 9 Games:
Career High in Min per game (37.8)
Career Low in FT Attempts (0.9), Makes (0.4), and Percentage Per Game (50%).
Corner vs. Above the Break 3P% - 51.7% vs. 15.2%
Corner 3 - 3.2 per game
ATB 3 - 3.7 per game
Group B:
Milwaukee, Indiana, Miami, Detroit, and Toronto
Why Indiana?
Indiana is most likely in the group to get it going in an FEP setting, which these games tended towards last season.
^^ Bigs who can pop a PnR, like Turner, can be the wrinkle that becomes a separator in games like these.
Hali has been up and down this season, but when he gets it going in the secondary break and PnR, he’s one of my favorite offensive engines.
According to Second Spectrum, he’s 2nd in the league in PnR PPD, filtered for a minimum of 200 attempts (24 players qualified).
5 Wins = 167 PnR (33.4 Per Game) @ 1.253 PPD
5 Losses = 134 PnR (26.6 Per Game) @ 1.069 PPD
Group C:
Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, and Washington
This group has the game I’m most excited to watch (BOS vs. CLE). The wildcard winner will be the team who doesn’t win this game.
The Cavs have been willing to soft-switch PnR actions with Mobley and Allen and leave them on an island to keep their defensive shell attached and compressed.
BOSTON is a different beast than any other team when it comes to attacking switches.
Wild Card - Cavs
The defense is real - #2 in steals per game - #8 in PPG (109..1) - 122.3 PPG offense - NET +13.2
Biggest Disappointment:
The Milwaukee offense is the 19th-rated offense in the league, according to NBA.com.
All stats below are from second spectrum.
Drives (27th): Can’t get past anyone (Giannis is 5th in the league in PPD).
#1 OKC - 633 (#1 NET)
#4 CLE - 608 (#1 Offense)
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#27 MIL - 383
Passes (21st): No ball movement since they aren’t getting past anyone to start rotations.
#2 GSW - 3363 (#4 Offense)
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#21 MIL - 2813
Off Ball Screens (30th): - No Panic Thinking Opportunities. They are not helping themselves jumpstart opportunities to solve the driving or passing issues.
#3 GSW - 633
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#29 SAS - 300
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#30 MIL - 256
The Lillard + Antetokounmpo PnR isn’t the best two-man game these guys can run. The lack of speed in this action doesn’t scare defenses; it’s predictable.
The Handoff game is the peak action for Lillard and Antetokounmpo. It adds an element of speed that their PnR can not produce, making the action less predictable than the PnR.
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