Oklahoma City: Game Notes & Three BIG Things
The Oklahoma City Thunder played the Minnesota Timberwolves three times in the past two weeks. These teams are building toward the playoffs, and we could see a series between them sometime this spring
I’m sharing notes from the last two OKC vs. MIN games after the All-Star break, plus three BIG things on Oklahoma City. These were two of the most fun games of the season, highlighted by Minnesota's on-the-road comeback in OKC (25 points).
Three BIG things have stood out to me this year regarding OKC:
Secondary playmaking options around SGA—Who the pocket player is matters!
They are a great Regular Season team (GTO); can they also be a great Playoff (FEP) team?
SGA: Shooting, Change of Direction Brilliance, Foul grifting, and everything in between.
Secondary Playmaking Options, aka “The Alex Caurso one”:
My biggest takeaway from the season with OKC is examining who will be the player in the decision-making spot after SGA draws two to the ball when it matters most.
SGA brings two players to the basketball often, and he does it in a variety of actions:
PnR: 9.21% (1628 Total Possessions)(128 Blitzed)
ISO: 3.05% (787 Total Possessions)(24 Doubles)
Post: 16.67% (60 Total Possessions)(10 Doubles)
Data by Second Spectrum
The primary way he’s getting two defenders on the ball is via the PnR action. This action will be the action that will make or break Oklahoma City in the playoffs (more on that to come).
Who the screener is during these actions will affect the shot quality OKC can produce from these actions. Alex Caruso is the swing piece; he is the one who connects and unlocks many of OKC’s lineups.
Carsuo has a 0.77 assist rate in PnR actions with SGA this season.
Compare that to SGA’s other primary PnR partners: Hartenstein’s 0.036 assist rate or Holmgren’s 0.039 assist rate, and it’s significantly better.
Carsuo also has a 0.01 turnover rate in PnR actions with SGA this season.
Compare that to SGA’s other primary PnR partners: Hartenstein’s 0.03 turnover rate or Holmgren’s 0.026 assist rate; again, it’s significantly better.
It will be a big deal for this OKC team to get AC involved in the PnR actions with SGA over Hartenstein and Holmgren whenever possible in the playoffs.
What does the OKC playoff rotation look like, and how does that affect the problems they can solve/present to opponents?
The Oklahoma City Thunder currently have 12 players averaging 15 minutes a game; they are one of the deepest teams in the league.
This rotation will have to be cut down when the playoffs roll around, but who gets cut and what skills will go with them to the bench?
OKC has multiple players who could be considered specialists, excelling at one end of the floor, and a few “tweeners,” who are in-between positions and tend to be on the smaller end of their natural positions.
Dort, Wallace, Wiggins, and Joe.
Where these guys fit into the playoff rotation and puzzle will be a big deal.
Dort brings a defensive presence on the other team’s best perimeter player but leaves a bit to be desired offensively.
Wallace is as steady as they get. Good on the ball, never late in rotations, and makes the right play. But he’s undersized and doesn’t shoot it well enough off movement to be a starting shooting guard that scares you enough to have him pull significant gravity on the offensive end.
Wiggins is a big swing player for this team. Is this a hot streak, or has this guy hit a Matrix moment? Is he now a starting shooting guard who will hit shots at a high clip and be a second-side playmaker?
Joe has always been one of my favorite shooters in the league, even when he was in Philly. But he’s on the smaller end regarding weight and doesn’t bring much to the table regarding ball handling or second-side playmaking in 4v3 situations.
Whoever emerges from this group to join SGA, Williams, Holmgren, Hartenstein, and Caruso in the playoff rotation will significantly influence the team's ability to present and solve problems in each playoff series.
SGA:
SGA has the best combination of changing direction, putting defenders off balance or out of rhythm, and finishing around the rim in the league.
I wrote extensively about SGA last year, so I won’t dive too deep into the weeds here.
My opinion during the 23/24 season on SGA was that while he could be the league’s MVP, he was still not quite ready to be the best player on a championship team. This perspective/take was influenced by one specific type of shot he was unwilling to shoot: the downhill PnR pull-up three.
When I worked with NBA players, I always created a SWOT analysis of their game. Each player’s “threats” section is unique based on their goals and status in the league. I did a SWOT analysis on SGA last year. The grading scale I used was that of a player trying to be the best player in every playoff series, a lofty goal that requires a harsh lens.
In 23/24, his downhill PnR actions lacked a three-point shot. It's not that he couldn’t make it, but he wasn’t even taking it.
Seeing him look to add this specific shot to his game has been one of the most fun development stories to track. It’s a shot that makes him as close to an unsolvable puzzle as possible, and if he can take and make this shot at volume, he can be the best player in every series.
^^ Here is the action and the shot.
You can check all three pieces referenced above here:
The OKC Victory:
OKC—Holmgren's first play pin down three off a gap read. That type of shot will make these big lineups scary or blah. Can he shoot enough volume from a diverse enough shot-type profile? That's the question.
MIN—Naz Reid hits the same shot off a pin down gap read later in the game. These are footers making these reads and shots. How can you not love and appreciate the place this game is at?!?
OKC—The SGA and Caruso PnR chemistry is popping as the season progresses. AC is good at finding the pockets of space after the screen, and SGA trusts AC to make plays for himself or others.
OKC—The defense is just so stingy at giving up paint drives. Quick and forceful switches at the point of attack—clear rules and communication. You rarely see them caught on the back foot.
This defense makes their offense hum. It’s much easier to attack when you're playing off turnovers and missed shots.
OKC—I love this ATO with the Danny Green cut! This type of strong side cut with a high-level shooter makes the LMH defender's choice impossible at the level—it’s a death sentence for the defense.
OKC—SGA is so talented on the left side of the court. His ability to get into your body (dig) and then get away (glide) into open space behind him to shoot is elite.
OKC—SGA downhill PnR three to end the 2nd. This is the shot I'm watching all season and into the playoffs. This shot puts him over the top as a guy who can be the best player in EVERY series, not just some1.
OKC—Conley hits a PnR three vs. Hartenstein. How do they play him? Drop? Switch? Is he a spot in the defense teams will attack? Next time we see this PnR, Hartenstein is up more to the level, then into a drop, and SGA shrinks off Clark from the strong side to deter the McDanials roll pass.
How well Hartenstein can hold up in these actions vs. high-level shooters will be a big deal.
OKC—The Hartenstein floater is a really fun shot. When I worked with an All-NBA big, I was a big proponent of this shot's ability to differentiate you from others. I saw it by watching Jokic every night when working with Beasley; I wonder if Hartenstein did, too.
OKC—Hartenstein is also such a fun passer. He’s a breath of fresh air for this offense and gives them another dimension to unlock some cutting options that weren’t there last year.
MIN—The McDaniels as a screener when he’s being guarded by a big is fun! Not stashing him in the corner and allowing the big to roam helps to open up good 4v3 attacking options when paired with Edwards or Conley in the PnR.
McDaniels Points Per Direct As Screener in PnR:
Edwards: 1.052
Conley: 1.385
It’s a small sample size, only 154 total actions, but it’s popping on film. MIN pairs him in the action with a strong shooter when another team’s five-man guards him. It looks like they’re getting to it more and more.
OKC—What a close to the 3rd for SGA. There is a drastic difference in his off-the-dribble shooting when he can get to his step back rather than go downhill. He’s so talented at that particular shot, and you can tell he loves to shoot it.
OKC—Caruso shooting is one of this team's most significant swing skills for the playoffs. They will be challenging to beat if he can shoot the ball at a high clip with enough volume. AC has been an okay shooter on okay volume for his career
Career Three-Point Shooting:
Volume: 2.7
Percentage: 37.6
If he’s better than okay, this team will win a championship. The SGA-AC-Williams trio plus one big is an absolute unit on both ends of the floor!
^^ SGA-AC-Williams + Hartenstine: 99 possessions is a minimal sample size, but +42.1 and 125.3 per 100 possessions on offense with 83.2 points per 100 on defense and a 21.8% turnover rate… Sign me up for that group!
^^ SGA-AC-Williams + Holmgren: 51 possessions, again, is a minimal sample size, but +56.6 and 151.0 per 100 possessions on offense with 94.3 points per 100 on defense and a 24.5% turnover rate… Again, give me more!
OKC—If they put a three-point barrage line they did in the middle of the 4th, it makes beating them seem impossible. Those shots gave SGA space to operate in ISO actions, and he’s otherworldly at getting defenders off rhythm and off balance while he is playing in rhythm and on balance. His Dig → Glide shot going left is truly unstoppable.
The MIN Victory:
OKC—The step-back threes on the left wing are the signature SGA threes. It's tough to do anything but pray if you're Reid.
OKC—Are Wallace, Joe, and Wiggins big enough to all play together in the playoffs? Can only two of them play together?
OKC—Will Wiggins shoot this shot in the playoffs? He's a game-changer if he's this aggressive and making shots.
MIN-McDaniels has found a nice groove using his size to get into rhythm and balance midrange looks. I love the PnR stuff they are running with him screening and playing downhill in the pocket.
OKC—SGA foul grifting at its finest. These are not basketball plays.
The second clip should be a foul-grifting penalty.
MIN—This is a foul because SGA goes into a shooting motion, so why isn’t this a shooting foul? The NBA is trying to split the baby by not completely rewarding this behavior with free throws but also calling it a foul; I don’t get it.
Anthony Edwards is one of the marque players in the league, and he’s competing. Why on earth are we calling this a foul?
^^ OKC announcer: “he was going for the foul.”
In the words of the iconic Mark Jackson: What happened to the game I love?
OKC—I could watch Joe shoot a basketball all day; he can spin it! His skip-shot transition three was beautiful.
OKC—Their defense is like a wall. They are so damn good at guarding their yard and working to keeping the ball out of the paint.
OKC—When they see the other team play zone, they quickly find the soft spot in the middle via the pass quicker than any other team in the league.
OKC—SGA downhill three on the PnR. This is interesting. This is the shot that pushes him into the place of the best player on a championship Team.2
MIN—Reid is a matchup nightmare. He can handle and shoot it too well to be covered by a center, and if he gets a smaller guy in the post, he can get to the jump hook going over either shoulder.
MIN—In the 3rd, Conley, Reid, and Edwards start flopping to get calls on SGA. Is this what the NBA wants? These players are smart; they'll adjust to a winning strategy. If flopping and gritting get these results, they'll all do it.
OKC—The lineup of SGA-Joe-Wiggins-AC-Williams is small but feisty, and they can move the ball. This lineup is built to get great shots when SGA gets blitzed. But can they rebound and guard?
^ +4 during their stretch. Will this be the OKC break in case of an emergency lineup when they need to speed the game up or get something going offensively?
^^ 17 possessions is a minimal sample size, but +59.6 and 147.1 per 100 possessions on offense with 87.5 points per 100 on defense and a 31.2% turnover rate… WHOA!
OKC—There are many outstanding secondary playmaking options around SGA in this offense. The biggest question is, can those options hold up on the defensive end, too?
MIN—Can Dillingham play for this team in the playoffs? His contribution on the offensive side of the ball is more prominent than just stats because it allows Edwards to attack from off-ball positions (where he is at his best). But on defense, he will be hunted in every play. Does the show and recovery work on every PnR action?
MIN—Shannon Jr. is a Mac truck driving downhill, and he can guard up or down. He’s a player who can create lineup versatility. If that guy could shoot the ball, he would be a quality starter on a good team.
OKC—The process is excellent in the 4th. The missed shots make the results look worse. However, they are getting high-quality looks through a great offensive process.
Process vs. Results (4th Quarter)
OKC: qSQ of 56.06 but shot an eFG% of 24.14 (-31.93).
MIN: qSQ of 44.74 but shot an eFG% of 61.36 (+16.62).
Data by Second Spectrum
OKC—The five-man lineup that kicked ass to end the 3rd was out there to try to close the game out in the 4th sans one exception (Dort → Joe). This type of conundrum is the biggest question for OKC. Their top defensive options leave question marks offensively, but their top offensive options leave them small and exposed defensively.
19 possessions is a minimal sample size, but -88.2 and 36.8 points per 100 possessions on offense and 125.0 points per 100 on defense is more like…
Who from the Joe, Dort, Wallace, and Wiggins group will be the options OKC will bet on when the chips are down? Will they lean into defense and hope to survive offensively, or will they lean into offense and try to cover for their guys/pray that the other teams miss?
MIN—No Edwards on the floor during this big comeback; it’s the Naz Reid show. He makes some plays look so effortless. It’s unicorn stuff from someone his size.
MIN—Anthony Edwards with a huge block, he takes the match-up with SGA personally; I don’t know what happened between them or if it’s more of an “I’m the alpha here” type of thing, but it’s spicy with Edwards, and I’m here for it.
Man, I hope we get this matchup in the playoffs. This is fun!!
Marzie Say Whoof!
All clips of this type of shot are at the top in the three big things portion.
All clips of this type of shot are at the top in the three big things portion.