Denver: Game Notes and Three Big Things
The Jokic and Murray two-man game is as good as it gets. But DEN needs some "others" to come along and join the offensive creation party.
I’ve enjoyed posting my notes from the game watched in preparation for my Low Man Help podcast and guest spots on the All-NBA podcast with Adam Mares and Tim Legler.
I’m sharing notes from three games again but keeping one team the same: Denver. DEN went 1-2 in these games.
SAC vs. DEN
DEN vs. MIN
DEN vs. CHI
Three macro things stood out to me on this three-game set:
Will the math game matter as much in the PO as the RS?
“Project Dynasty”
Jokic.
The three-point math battle has become integral to the NBA game. With great shooting, teams can punch above their weight class from night to night. DEN is last in the league in 3PA per game, at 31.1. For reference, BOS is first at 49.
It’s a big divide that puts DEN at such a disadvantage if a team gets it going, which can happen in this league.
Denver 3PA vs. Opponent 3PA over this three-game stretch:
SAC (41) vs. DEN (37) — SAC +4 attempts.
DEN (32) vs. MIN (30) — DEN +2 attempts.
DEN (27) vs. CHI (53) — CHI +26 attempts.
Denver 3PM vs. Opponent 3PM over this three-game stretch:
SAC (15) vs. DEN (13) — SAC +6 points.
DEN (11) vs. MIN (14) — MIN +9 points.
DEN (6) vs. CHI (24) — CHI +54 points.
Only once did DEN win the attempts battle, and in no game did they win the makes battle. Over this three-game stretch, their opponents attempted 28 more three-point shots and outscored them by 69 points from the three-point line.
Project Dynasty was a massive piece that The Ringer did on Calvin Booth and the Denver Nuggets. It was published on October 16th, 2023. This was right before the season after DEN won their first NBA Championship in 47 years.
Booth’s philosophy is built on four key pillars: basketball IQ, character, positional size, and the absence of skill deficiencies. All of the players the Nuggets target must meet at least three of the criteria, but ideally all four.
This line stood out to me the most in the piece, with the most prominent swing factor of how you define “skill.” I put my definition of skill out into the world with this piece on Ausar Thompson; you can read about my definition here:
To pull from that piece:
I define skill as transferring energy from the body to the ball. Basketball contains four macro skills: passing, ball handling, finishing, and shooting.
From the piece, I do not believe that Booth has the same definition of skill; that is where the problem lies with this DEN team.
There is not enough skill in how I define the word out on the court with Jokic. The strain on him to manufacture not only offense but easy offensive baskets for others is significant.
Jokic. Night to night, this guy is just on another level from everyone else in the league. I wrote a big thing last year about the game when it felt like he knew he was the best guy in the league. You can check it out here:
SAC/DEN:
DEN—Wow! What a cut by CB. He doesn’t give you the shooting KCP did, but he’s got a different gear with the athleticism and attacking the basket. This is a great example: when your defender has the back of his head turned to you, you make it easy on him by staying in place; MOVE!
DEN—They’re getting creative with flipping traditional split action spacing into backscreen actions. C split and Elbow split catch points, but the screens are not in the same place, tighter to the ball handler, but it’s NJ, so there's no problem there, and you get to use backscreens, which are the hardest to communicate.
^^ Wagner was getting a lot of these early in the year for ORL; I wonder if they stole it from them.
SAC—DeRozan gets the best whistle I’ve seen for a guy who isn’t an All-NBA player. It’s wild. Back-to-back possessions: Sabonis has two hands in the back of NJ on a post-up and no call. CB puts a hand in DD's face of a fadeaway, and a foul is called.
How can she see if his hand touches him from that angle? It’s impossible.
DEN—Double pin to MPJ quadruple SB3. Why not press this into the hole and see if you can get a lefty or NJ on the Pop? These are the ones where it’s lock and trail, and he can bust it downhill from the start (he’s 6’10") or hit the single to NJ, not this trash. There is a time and place for this shot; it’s not in early offense with the MVP standing wide-open.
DEN—Swather is in a similar action (MPJ isn’t an empty corner look) with NJ later in the quarter. JS hits the single (NJ pop) and plays from that advantage.
DEN—CB gets DD with another WIMS cut on DD, who is looking dead at the ball. This is also a foul; the DD whistle is unmatched.
SAC—Monk and Sabonis two-man game is still cooking. It’s nice to see DS take a few floaters and middies in the pocket. That’s a big shot for him, and it would add another layer to his two-man games.
SAC—DEN going UNDER a lot of DHO actions and giving looks to shooters. So far, in the 1st, not many looks are going down. I wonder if teams will say F’it in the PO, go UNDER everything, and not let MM and DF get downhill. DD is an UNDER every time, even in the regular season.
DEN—Inverted NJ PnR still hits! It was pure magic when NJ and JM broke this out in the 18/19 season. JM is such a good reader of space; seeing this in action on a night-to-night basis was a blast!
SAC—Percentages be damned, NJ refuses to guard DS at the three-point line—Golden State series blueprint. Shooting isn’t all about percentages; it’s about how much fear your shooting creates in defenses.
DEN—JM looks crisp in the PnR right now. It's much better than the OLY and early season for DEN. He’s creative and fearless in the two-man actions, which are two of the best qualities to have; mix that with NJ, and they are the best combo out there.
DEN—MPJ shots at the rim. When he’s driving the ball, it doesn’t look great, too high of hips and not enough goofy foot finishing to be able to absorb contact + finish.
Finishing at the Rim:
Filtered for 100 attempts min (Top 209 players)
Self-Created %: 50.23 (165th - 21st percentile)
eFG%: 67.87 (10th - 95th percentile)
Avg. Dribbles Before: 0.88 (175th - 16th percentile)
The best MPJ looks at the rim come from him making good off-ball cuts, not dribble-drive actions. MPJ is also a great OReb guy; he’s 45th in the league and 2nd in DEN.
^^ This makes MPJ turning down top-lock cuts to the rim so infuriating.
DEN—Watson is entertaining on defense; that guy challenges everything at the rim! The big question is whether or not he can play in the PO this season. The offense wasn’t there last year, and when the game slows down, can he survive?
DEN—Back-to-back RW PnR actions with NJ for layups. Ellis goes UNDER both times, but RW still beats him to the rim. If you guard him with a smaller player, he can still bully them.
DEN—JM with the early LMH contest on DS finish, into a rebound and coast-to-coast lefty lay, I’m beginning to think JM is back!
SAC—NJ is still daring DS, and DEN is still going UNDER on more two-man actions than not. When does SAC start to let it rip? SAC is at 20th in the league in 3PA per game. Is this beginning to compress their spacing, with DD and DS involved in almost every two-man action?
DEN—NJ baits KM into an awful shot after he gets downhill into a 2v1 situation. NJ is one of the best in the league at faking help UP the lane and then getting deflections during the offensive player moment of indecision.
^^ When I coached guards who would be in situations where they would be attacking NJ in downhill situations, I always told them this:
“He will not commit to help; he will always stunt. Take the action directly to him with early pickups (one hand if possible) and explosive finishing. He will get deflections if you have the ball low on the pickup or wait to pick it up till you’re close to him.”
SAC—DS and KM are showing a lot of good stuff in the DHO game during the 3rd. I would love to see more volume here for SAC. Murray is their best shooter, and teams are putting their worst defender on him. This is an excellent action because you can’t switch it; otherwise, DS will punish KM’s defender in the post.
DEN—RW and CB just don’t let you have anything easy. They are constantly attacking the passing lanes.
SAC—I found myself asking, “Where is Fox in this game?” The next play is a DD mid-post ISO against Gordon. I'm unsure how the DD experience (who will be on the books for 25mm plus over the next two years) sits with Fox and his camp. DD needs to play on-ball, which means fewer touches for DF.
^^ AG responds with a mid-post ISO against DD. Neil Paine: The 90s are alive, baby!
DEN—NJ and PW are going inverted PnR, and NJ sees DD’s early LMH, so he fires a rocket to JS for a corner three. This is a pass that only so few guards can make in the NBA, and this dude is making it from the center position, one-of-one.
^ Next play, NJ rebounded to push into a JM cut to force LMH and a PW three; then the full-court NJ heave; what a way to end the 3rd!
DEN—PW’s shooting doesn’t look up to the level of someone ready to be excited to shoot in the PO. The shot prep footwork isn’t there on every catch. Each catch doesn’t feel like an opportunity. For me, it’s never about the percentage as much as the volume and how you catch the ball each time. Are you excited (shooting-wise) to catch it?
There is a big difference between these two shots. One is in the “house money” category; make or miss, it’s all good here - (end of the quarter, and the shot prep is excellent; he’s doing the work early here mentally, too). The other is an example of PW not seeing these moments as opportunities but just ones he has to take.
SAC—The three-ball gets them back in this one to start the 4th. Two each from DMc and TL. Even when DEN plays great, they're far behind in the math battle night to night during the RS.
DEN—Awesome cut by CB in the elbow split action. JM’s shooting creates a panic-thinking moment between DF and KE. CB does a great job of starting the cut early here, as soon as he hears the switch communication, but before KE drops to get his hands into CB. Great job reading the play early from CB.
DEN—One of the most fun things about watching NJ play is how he sees the layers of a team's defense in real-time. I’ve worked with All-NBA bigs who play these same actions, and this level of processing is a step beyond anything out there in the league at NJ’s position. LMH can only come from the corner in this action; NJ knows that once he sees that he can’t go to RW, he doesn’t have to look to see MPJ. He knows it’s the only place the ball can go because of LMH. Doing this in real-time is special.
SAC—Back-to-back DS and DD two-man actions where defenders keep going under, resulting in a long two. One is a make, the other a miss, but either way, teams will live with SAC playing this process over DF and MM in these actions.
^^ The following poss are more DS with MM or DF forced in the two-man. These two create more optionality for SAC than DD in these actions.
DEN—I would love to see MPJ be more forceful to the rim on these empty corner pin actions when he gets lock & trail coverage.
SAC—DMc is still making threes going right off a pindown from DS. How many of these does this partnership have in his career?!?
DEN/MIN:
DEN—JM and NK two-man has such nice layers to it. The ONLY thing NK can't do is be a vertical floor spacer. But he does everything else at an elite level. Best Pocket and PnPop big in the league. Here’s a breakdown of what makes their two-man game unique from last year's MIN series.
DEN—If you're up and the level on AE and LMH isn't over early on RG, it’s a tough cover when they're playing four small guys. They have to make RG a playmaker in the PnR, not a zero-dribble finisher.
DEN—RW has been a nice story with DEN, but the shooting isn't great, and teams can put DEN in bad matchups if he starts. It's time to bring AG back to the starting lineup.
DEN—MPJ can be such a frustrating watch. He can miss simple reads to take tough shots more often than you would like to see from a player of his caliber.
MIN—RG playmaking in the PnR pocket on the AE blitz. That's good stuff. Get him the reps now.
MIN—How long until teams stop guarding JR from deep? Oh nevermind, DeAndre Jordan just flew by on a JR pump fake from three. Legler just said he’s 6 for his last 40 from out there heading into this game, good KYP from DJ.
DEN—JM looks good…
DEN—Lots of inverted PnR actions with NJ. Everyone is getting involved. This action was reserved for JM, but now it’s RW, MPJ, and any DEN player.
Jokic (Inverted) PnR:
Per 100: 6 (38th percentile)
PPD: 1.239 (93rd percentile)
DEN—How many times does DEN get wide-open 3’s from the NJ at the elbow into a back screen actions? MIN is just giving them to them. Is it a TC, Finch or both thing where it feels like they are willing to dare DEN to shoot more than any other team in the regular season.
TC Record since leaving DEN:
RS (4-2)
PO (4-3)
Total (8-5 + 1 Series Win)
DEN—Legler just said that CB gives you all the shooting of KCP and more. I can’t get there with this one. Shooting isn’t just about % it’s about fear. CB shooting 37% is good, but only 2.5 attempts in 32 min of game action, that isn’t all the shooting that KCP gave this team, KCP brought the fear, which means defensive gravity, which translates to space for NJ to work.
KCP in DEN:
22/23: 4.2 3PA - 42%
23/24: 4.1 3PA - 40%
DEN—JM fade away in the 3rd is a prime example of % doesn't matter. He's unwilling to throw it to RW to let him shoot it from three—RW is shooting 34% on 3.6 3PA.
MIN—Back-to-back AE PnR 3’s. The first one, JM, goes UNDER, and the second, NJ, doesn't get up to the level. You always have to have crisp KYP versus a guy that good.
DEN—Where is the shooting? It feels like DEN is always so far behind the 8-ball when it comes to the math game.
DEN/CHI:
DEN—Another Inverted NJ PnR… and another bucket. Is this the most unstoppable play in basketball? What good solutions are there for this one?
DEN—JM non-shot in the secondary break. These are the ones that I wish JM would let rip. He's such a good shooter, and these are the shots that are there for a shooter of his caliber.
CHI—NV is having himself a quarter in the PnR; this is one area where you can get to NJ. NJ will dare other bigs to score the ball. He did it the other night against SAC with DS. I think he believes that other bigs won’t have the mindset to shoot the volume needed to really hurt DEN.
Does he know it’s Serbian heritage night, not Montenegro night!?
CHI—Their spacing is great, they really spread you out and hunt corner threes. I wonder if they lead the league in corner 3’s?
CHI Corner 3’s:
2nd 3PA Per 100: 11.3
3rd in 3PM: 214
eFG%: 58.79
DEN—NJ has two first-quarter dunks; he knows what his Serbian people came to see!!
DEN—The spacing with AG, RW and PW on the floor together is very poor. I'm not sure this lineup can play together much longer.
DEN—NJ in the PnR pocket is just unfair; he rarely makes a bad help UP the lane read, and his floater is apex-level stuff. There are no good defensive solutions to the JM and NJ two-man game.
NJ As Screener:
25 Per 100
1.111 PPD
DEN—A third NJ DUNK!! What is going on!?! Now a 4th one?!?!? WTF.
DEN—JM shoots the trail three in the secondary break to start the 3rd quarter of a TO. I love that. It’s a miss, but that isn’t as important as the mindset of “these are good shots for me and us.”
CHI—I like Lonzo Ball, and NJ is the best in the pocket against LMH, but this level of LMH effort is embarrassing.
DEN & CHI—Their spacing on offense couldn’t be more opposite. DEN is tight and compact, and the cutting has to be perfect and almost always off NJ actions. CHI is spread out, the ball is pinging around, moving the defense side to side, and they shoot from deep to open up their cutting.
DEN—I love the back-to-back DHO threes from MPJ. I don’t care that they are missed; DEN needs more from him. Both shots were good reads. I would love to see him add a higher level of consistency and venom to his shot prep footwork.
CHI—Lots of PnPop options between NV and Smith. They we able to make NJ pay for being in drop with their willingness to shoot the ball. Something Sabonis didn’t do to NJ in the game earlier in the week.
CHI Bigs 3 Point Shooting:
NV: 2-9
JS: 1-4
DEN—The NJ and JM two-man game can NOT be switched. They know exactly what to get to when they see that coverages and they both trust the other to understand the mismatch. They’re fun!
JM hit two on switches going baseline on the right side. One against Randle and the other on NV this game.
DEN—Biggest play of the game and DEN goes to their two-man game of NJ and JM. CHI sends the double off RW. This will be a theme in big games for DEN.
Puppy Marzie Says Happy Hump Day!!
This was a really good and educational breakdown!
As a shooting coach have you ever felt Denver’s altitude made a difference in their shooting, especially with 3pas? Does the team need to make an adjustment every time they’re on the road?
No offense, new reader, and i understand why, but the initials/shorthand is very tough to read. I can get most of them, but NK? KYP? Seems like a script or copy/replace would help. Awesome awesome content tho (even if i disagree with Rudy getting more touches).