Minnesota: Game Notes and Three Big Things

This team "could" be built to play their best basketball in April, May, and June.

I got a lot of positive feedback about posting my notes from the game watched in preparation for my guest-hosting gig on the All-NBA podcast with Tim Legler. Here are the notes from those games.

I’m sharing notes from three games again but keeping one team the same: Minnesota.

• MIN vs. NYK

• MIN vs. CLE

• MIN vs. MEM

That’s three games in four nights, which is a good snapshot of the team. All three opponents are high-quality and present unique challenges.

MIN went 1-2 in these games. They are working through a new roster and could be a dangerous team in April. But, if they don't get it together, they could become wasted potential.

Three macro things stood out to me on this three-game set:

1. Rob Dillingham’s development.

2. Julius Randle’s playmaking opportunity.

3. Anthony Edward’s PnR reads—Process vs. Result mindset.

I was drawn to Dillingham during these three games, especially in the PnR. He’s a key piece in the MIN puzzle. They don’t have a lot of bites at the PD apple, and he’s a top-10 pick that they gave up a lot to get. His development matters a lot to their calculus.

Dillingham’s PnR before the three-game stretch:

• Per 100: 43 - He’s getting the film.

• PPD: 0.921 - He’s getting in the right spots; the process reads can improve.

Dillingham’s PnR after the three-game stretch:

• Per 100: 43.6

• PPD: 1.047 - He showed that his speed and creativity can present a unique element in this action.

Another big-picture takeaway was how vital Randle’s playmaking is for this team. JR and MIN should increasingly embrace it to be the best team they can be. I don’t know if he enjoys it more than scoring, but I believe it’s his elite skill and the one that MIN needs him to do the most.

Randle has the size and skill to create cracked shells and rotations against almost any defender he faces. Cover him with a guard, and he can bully in the post till you send a double. Cover him with a big, and he can get into the paint via dribble to draw a second defender. Put him in a two-man action with Edwards, and he gets to play advantage basketball from the pocket.

Randle’s Playmaking Stats:

4.5 Assist (Need more here as the season ticks on)

3.0 TOs

The optionality and playmaking of Randle & Dillingham are two of the most significant swing factors for this team.

Finally, the Rudy-Edwards dynamic is weird. Edwards does not like to give Rudy the ball in the pocket every time in blitzed two-man actions. I think Rudy needs as many reps as he can get in pocket playmaking situations, but even that feels weird to say out loud, given that Rudy is in his 12th year in the league.

^^ Edwards openly gets frustrated with Rudy during games. I am not sure that’s great for the situation—something to monitor.

MIN/NYK:

MIN—Off the bat, OReb kicked out three. There is NO better time to shoot the ball. I think it’s because we grow up catching passes from a rebounder under the basket, so it’s the most natural motion. Who knows.

MIN—Randle + Edwards DHO game could be a game changer when teams go to blitz AE.

MIN only runs 3.9 per 100 and scores 1.095, but this action would be gold for them with Randle and Reid's ball-handling ability. It would also allow AE to set up backdoor cuts and play 3v2 downhill—scary.

Handoff Combo (pre-MEM game)

Randle + Edwards:

• Per 100: 3.9

• PPD: 1.095

Reid + Edwards:

• Per 100: 2.6

• PPD: 1.292

MIN—Not many players in the NBA are better at reading Drop coverage than Conley. The floater is such a weapon when “breaking” the big in the drop. Here’s a breakdown of MC “breaking” PnR bigs from last year's DEN series.

NYK—Brunson’s floater is up there with MC and he’s pretty good at “Breaking” bigs in the PnR. He’s such a fun watch. What a start for JB here, where would NYK be without him?

NYK—Bridges driving closeouts looks good, back to back catch & shoot threes generated. NYK needs more shot creation for from guys not named JB.

• OG misses corner drift WIMS read on first drive, turns into a ATB three instead of corner one.

• JB makes an awesome 2nd window WIMS reads for a catch & shoot three.

MIN—Good creativity and read from Dillingham in first PnR with Reid - got to use the left hand on the left side. Guys are too athletic in this league, can’t give that angle back.

MIN—AE step back 3… If Rudy is under the rim, has a cross-match, and you can see both of his numbers, you must give him a touch. Got to have some EQ there.

MIN—Dillingham’s speed is an outlier. Opened up a Reid 3 PM in a PnR action and then a lob to Rudy on an empty corner PnR. He looks like he’s got a chance to be a guy that can blow a game open every few nights.

MIN—The other side of the floor is a more significant learning curve for Dillingham. Back to back threes from Payne during his PnR coverage. I know it’s a drop with Rudy, but I would love to see how he evolves with getting skinny or not dying as much on the screen.

^ Just gambled for a steal on a switch and gave up another Payne 3. No bueno.

NYK—CAM PAYNE is making it RAIN!! He just broke off a play to get a SB3 up, lol. I can’t fault him for wanting the heat check there, but Hart didn’t like it.

MIN—Dillingham gets a TO on a lob to Rudy by not making Sims “break” his 2v1 coverage in the drop. I’m excited to see where RD is at by the end of the year in reading 2v1 actions in PnR Drop coverage.

Three Dillingham PnRs from 1st half: Missed lefty opp and one good “breaking” read + one poor “breaking” read — I’m willing to bet he figures the NBA PnR out with reps.

NYK—Bridges & Hart’s defenders sitting slightly deeper in the gaps—court compressed. Without JB on the court, it’s difficult for them to generate good stuff consistently. Maybe it’s just this stretch.

Bridges & Hart without JB According to CLG:

• +15.2 with Towns (507 poss)

• +16.5 without towns (102 poss)

MIN—Reid feels like a cheat code. Man, that guy is talented offensively.

^ How long will he be amenable to coming off the bench?

NYK—They refuse to switch JB onto a good guard in PnR actions. AE just burned them two plays in a row for 5 points. AE gets the switch right before the half and goes drag → SB3 on JB.

NYK—Bridges keeps shooting. I respect the hell out of that guy. The worst thing is going 0-1 while turning down nine open looks. I love that he’s willing to go 0-10.

MIN—There are just a few missed single reads from AE every game that feel forced. He’s so talented that he thinks he can score in any situation (he might be able to). But there are times when hitting a single would do wonders for him/MIN; this is one of them. Open corner 3 or swing swing to MC 3 if JB makes the help the helper closeout.

NYK—1st poss of the 2nd half JB off-ball screen action. NYK has to find ways (like this) to get him time off the ball to attack from an advantage. It's too much of a load to handle and score as much as they need him to—similar to Cade in DET without Ivey.

MIN—AE -> Rudy in the pocket | Rudy -> McDaniels in the corner | McDaniels advantage attack to a middy. You have to get Rudy these reps in the pocket now; they'll need to be able to play this card in May.

MIN—AE and JR have with two TOs on backside defenders stealing passes in the span of five possessions. Too casual.

NYK—What will they do when they get to the PO, and all teams do is spam JB’s man as the screener in every PnR action? It looks exhausting trying to keep him from switching.

AE had his way in these actions throughout the game. NYK gave up a Beasley 3 to lose vs. DET on a PnR where they didn’t want to switch JB onto Cade.

NYK—Must play fast without JB on the floor. Hart is easily a top 5 transition player in the NBA. He's so creative in the open court.

MIN—AE “breaking” Sims for a PnR lob to Rudy, I love that! AE can be the best player in the world if he falls in love with the process of hitting singles. The talent is otherworldly; he would grind teams down.

MIN/CLE:

MIN—First play… geez. AE gives up layup to DM going UNDER a DHO. If you go under the action, you can NOT give up a straight-line drive at the rim. Bad tone setter here from AE.

MIN—Help UP the lane dunk for Rudy on an MC advantage drive. I imagine this is what they looked like when MC got traded to MIN.

CLE—Garland is so good at reading whether Rudy is “breaking” in the 2v1 Drop. I could watch him play PnR basketball all day. He’s the best teaching tape out there for young guards. I would 100% use it for Rob Dillingham. They are both undersized and have to be crisp and creative with the reads.

I raved about DG’s ability to “break” the PnR Drop coverage big while on the All-NBA podcast earlier this year.

MIN—JR’s shooting is a significant swing factor for this team. It feels like he is turning down a lot of looks that Towns feasted off in two-man games with AE and MC. He’s had been one outlier season as a shooter; otherwise, it’s low 30s.

^^ My eyes say the shot is not linked together and I would not bet on him shooting 40% on volume again with these current form.

MIN—Great LMH AE read and swing swing 3. This is the NYK play before halftime from last night. This is one of those singles that has to be hit every time and live with the results because it’s great process.

AE has made three of these early LMH reads → Corner pass this game. It’s nice to see him do the simple. Each one has resulted in a GREAT shot for MIN.

CLE—There is such a big difference in the quality of three-point looks they’re getting up tonight compared to the OKC game. Their dribble penetration looks so much better. OKC is so good at keeping the ball out of the paint.

MIN—FINALLY they get the ball to the middle of the zone (Reid) after five empty trips, and no one gets into the soft spot. The zone is giving MIN fits, good change up pitch from KA.

MIN—How talented is Reid?! Off the bounce 3, soft spot of the zone euro floater, and running two-man game into a help up the lane lob to Rudy. All in the span of a few minutes.

MIN—NAW, great story of self-awareness. There was a real chance he was going to end up out of the league after NOP. His shift from “I can be the man” to “How can I amplify the man” will make him generational wealth. So awesome to see.

MIN—AE DHO with JR into an early LMH read and wide open Reid 3…. I love the process here. More singles like this from AE is a big deal, make or miss.

MIN—McDaniels & Randle do not give me much confidence as a shooter. Their kinetic linking isn’t good. It opens the door for mental blocks when they hit a stretch of the misses.

MIN—Rudy in the pocket → Help UP the lane → McDaniels in the dunker. Keep getting Rudy the reps!!

CLE—Graland and Mitchell are cooking this Drop coverage. What a two-headed monster those guys are in the backcourt. Play too deep, three ball. Get up to the level; pocket pass to 3v2. Help too much with LMH, skip pass for 3. These dudes are lights out against Drop.

Garland & Mitchell vs. MIN:

• 40 Direct PnR

• 60 Points

^^ Rudy’s DROP Coverage in PO—I feel like MIN matches up well with OKC and poorly with DAL because of this specific coverage. Luka can shred this coverage shooting from deep. SGA can cook it, too, but he won’t break you from the three-point line like Luka can.

MIN—I love it when Randle does the dirty work; he is all over the O glass. He’s so strong and can create chaos when physically engaged at a high level.

MIN—I do not understand how MIN forgets to get the ball to the soft spot in the center of the zone. Every time they get a touch there, it turns into good looks, but they forget and let CLE off the hook by passing around the perimeter multiple times in a row.

MIN vs. CLE Zone:

• 20 Poss

• 16.6 Avg. Poss Length

• 0.700 PPP

MIN—Dillingham PnRs in 4th. At his size, he’s got to be so crisp in the process and relentless in attacking.

• Allen in a switch and gives it up, no bueno. Keep it or boomerang here; get some penetration. SGA was merciless on these switches a few nights ago.

• Jerome UNDER on the next one and keeps going (he shot this one vs NYK).

CLE—Hunting Dillingham with Garland or Mitchell to salt this game away. These are good reps for RD but he’s got to figure out how he can put more resistance on guys at his size.

MIN/MEM:

MIN—First play… geez. AE dies on a screen and gives up a WIDE OPEN Bane three. gap it or lock and get on the back hip and L&T. I know much easier to say but back to back games bad tone setters from AE.

MIN—Randle Handoff game opening up things for AE. Really like where this action could go, so much optionality and if blitzed then Randle 4v3 is the best option for MIN.

MEM—Morant, man that dude is special finishing around the rim. Lefty one hand pick up, wow!

MIN—Another backside TO to JR, this time from MC. All of them in the 20ft area. I wonder if it’s a spacing thing with the bodies covering up where help defenders are located. Out at the 3 point line you would see the backside defender, in the post they wouldn’t be low enough.

MEM—It's not Morant-only, but the rip-through foul grifting is out of control again. Ty Jerome, Brunson, Morant, and Edwards. I’ve seen so much rip-through grifting over the past three games.

MIN—JR is creating a lot of good offensive looks as a playmaker. He can generate quality actions when he’s in the open-court playmaking.

MIN—AE PnR Single Reads. 2nd Half THREAD.

He’s one of the best players on earth. I really think he can be the best player in any series if he leans into hitting singles and trusting teammates more. He does it sometimes, I believe consistently doing it would begin to empower his teammates and elevate them/him. Teammates feel when the best player trust/believes in them (Jokic does this) and it helps, god does it help them become more.

Process vs. Results: Too many times it feels like AE is swayed by the results of the previous play. AE has another leap in his game (scary) and it will come when he is no longer controlled by the results and falls in love with the process.

• PnR 1 (Level → Blitz/Switch) Opportunity to get JR in a 2v1 playmaking opportunity. AE takes a forced shot off a spin move.

• PnR 2: (Level → Blitz) Finds Rudy in the pocket early enough that Rudy can get his head around and read LMH. MIN gets WIDE OPEN 3 from advantage basketball created by AE.

• PnR 3: (Level → Blitz) Finds Rudy in the pocket again, screen was lower and space is tighter for Rudy. Rudy reads LMH and sees help UP the lane but makes too hot of a pass to handle for NAW.

• PnR 4: (Level → Blitz) Doesn’t hit Rudy in Pocket. Gets the corner on JJJ and forces the action. AE gets a foul but it’s bad process and it’s a 50/50 foul. These are the plays where the previous result (not process) shapes AE’s process.

• PnR 5: (Level → Blitz/Switch) Gets the corner on SA and creates a cracked shell. AE can make this type of difficult finish, but there is a WIDE OPEN catch & shoot 3 from a really good shooter whose man has switched onto him. I believe he sees Wells here, so he knows it’s not a Veer switch.

• PnR 6: (Level → Blitz) Finds JR in the pocket early and it leads to a open catch & shoot 3 for a really good shooter. Love the process here and trusting teammates at the end of a game. JR can thrive as a 4v3 playmaker in this type of two-man setting with AE when teams blitz.

PnR 4 & 5 are the ones where his results drive the process. I think his game makes the leap when he falls in love with the process and empowering his teammates.

Side note—No AE bounce passes to Rudy. It is much harder for bigs to catch a non-bounce pass and then make good pocket decisions. MC gets Rudy bounce passes in the pocket more frequently, which helps his playmaking.

MIN—AE off-ball actions this game seem to be greater than the previous two, I really like that. Makes the on-ball action scary at the end of the game because you don’t have as much of a rhythm seeing it.

MIN—Dillingham PnR reads keep getting better. I really think the reps are helping so much and you can feel his teammates empowering him to take them. Feels like his teammates understand how much chaos his speed can cause.

• Pull up 3 vs. Drop—Love it! At his size he’s got to be a process monster and be able to hit every shot in the book in the PnR. I think he has the talent to do it, the shot needs to be linked together a bit more to be a consistent shooter from above the break.

• Back to back plays where the nail help just stunts at RD. First time he gives it up and second time he keeps and gets a lay up. Really like to see him learning on the fly.

^^ Big RD stretch in the 4th.

MEM—Morant is special going downhill. The fact that you can still go UNDER on any PnR actions with him and live with the results makes me feel like he can’t take the step of consistently being the best player in a series during the PO.

MIN—AE and NR gave up 4 points in the second half saving the ball underneath their basket. Little things like that kill you in close games.

MIN—JR is the guy who has to play make in the pocket when AE gets blitz at the end of games. Created two WIDE open threes. Randle in ”playmaker” mode takes this team to another level.

Marzie Says HOOOOOOOOOOWL!!

Marzie is a big time Minnesota fan, she says it’s “La Familia.” I honestly think she’s been watching too much Vin Diesel on Netflix. Next thing I know we’re going to come home and she’s going to have a carona in her hand saying grace over a plate of BBQ chicken.

I have to put better safeguards on her Netflix account.