Ausar Thompson and The Definition Of Skill
The Prototype:
Ausar fits the ideal physical prototype for the modern-day 3&D wing. He’s an exceptional athlete, possesses physical measurements that jump off the page, and has a hunger to lock up the opposing team's best player every night.
There’s only one problem: Skill or, more specifically, lack of skill.
I define skill as transferring energy from the body to the ball. Basketball contains four macro skills: passing, ball handling, finishing, and shooting.
To produce skill, the body and basketball must work together to solve this equation:
Rhythm + Balance = Power
Within each of these macro skills, there are techniques like footwork and handwork. Multiple techniques must stack on top of one another to create an act of skill. These techniques will have a compounding effect that, depending on their quality, will either aid in or detract from the effectiveness of the energy transfer from the body to the ball.
Under this definition, the quarterback is the only skill position in football; other positions require extraordinary technique, but only the quarterback position requires energy to be transferred from the body to the ball. Because of this, their contracts are the biggest in total value, with the most guaranteed money.
Ausar is currently on the lower end of the skill spectrum in the NBA, with shooting (15.5% from three) being the biggest skill red flag.
This isn’t a unique situation; plenty of others before him fit the prototype physically but could never grasp the concept of skill or shooting at the NBA level. If this scenario continues, one of two things usually happens: you have the strength and size to move up a position group and play as a big, like Aaron Gordon, or you are no longer in the league. It’s that simple.
The “3&D” Role and It’s Offensive Epicenter:
The 3&D player has a starring role on defense and a complementary role on offense.
Defense - Take on the most challenging assignment from the opposing team, make their life hell, and wreck game plans.
Offense - Finish plays in transition, attack closeouts via shot or drive, and cut into advantageous spaces.
The job description is pretty simple, and if you can perform this role at a high level, it will lead to a long and prosperous career as an NBA starter.
The complementary 3&D offensive role leads to three main actions: spot-ups, cuts, and transition. While all three are essential, only one is the true epicenter: Spot-Ups.
According to Synergy, this is where Ausar currently ranks in the 3&D complementary offensive actions.
Ausar’s Rookie Year In Detroit
The 3&D player’s proficiency at attacking closeouts in spot-up situations will determine their floor. If they cannot become an average attacker of closeouts, they will not be able to successfully set their floor as a functional NBA player.
Shooting Interlude:
Shooting the basketball is an exercise in transferring energy. I have worked with three NBA players on changing their shot and produced an average jump of 5.8% in three-point percentage. If you want to read about my philosophy on shooting and see the changes to an NBA player’s shot, please click on this link to check out Malik Beasley’s before and after shooting mechanics.
The name “3&D” implies it all; you must be able to shoot the three.
The ability to shoot the ball can supercharge or tank the rest of their offensive game. As a player, your ability to shoot the ball changes the gravity on the court, positively and negatively, more than anything else in basketball.
Ausar is currently experiencing one of the harshest non-gravity lenses I can recall. He is shooting 15.5% from the three-point line, and his current mechanics do not suggest that number should be something different.
He’s one of the poster children for the OTE experience and all that comes with it. One specific partnership OTE entered into to help its players develop their game was with a company called BreakAway Data, referred to in this ESPN piece by Tim MacMahon as a startup that has developed a biomechanical shooting lab.
They aren’t the only firm in the space, but the MacMahon piece is by far the most mainstream attention any firm has gotten. It’s a great idea, in theory. However, the current execution has flaws, like Ausar’s shooting mechanics.
This piece isn’t about BreakAway Data or biomechanical shooting labs, but I believe their influence can be seen within the red flag habits in Ausar’s shooting mechanics. Presenting a question about the whole exercise. So, I’ll take a short detour here:
Here are a few quotes from the ESPN article;
"We are still early in the data analytics game, and the best teams who do [utilize] the data have really strong interpreters," Shane Battier, a 13-year NBA pro and two-time champion who is an investor and adviser for Breakaway Data, told ESPN. "You still need people to explain how this is practical and what this means in the development of an athlete.
“Breakaway Data's basketball mission as "an exploration of if there is an optimal biomechanical profile to become an elite shooter," but the company's approach, he said, is not necessarily one-form-fits-all. "It's not the holy grail," Battier said of biomechanical data analysis, "but it's an answer.”
"It's only useful if you use appropriate training methodologies," Klusemann said. "The biomechanical analysis doesn't tell you how to do it, but it allows you to study that. We work on someone's shot and say they've gotten better, but other than makes and misses and competition stats, there's been no way to really prove that. This allows us to say, 'We want to improve this player's wrist-release point,' and then measure that improvement.”
I recently met with the CEO of one of BreakAway Data's competitors to discuss what I look at in shooting, their process, and their experience working with players/teams. Between my takeaway from that meeting, the actual shooting report from BreakAway, and quotes in the ESPN article, I believe I have a pretty clear picture of the party line in the space. I’ll summarize for convenience here:
We can show you Point A (the current biomechanics of the shot) and Point Z (the ideal biomechanical form based on our database of information), and that’s it. Point B - > Y, that’s on you.
Here’s the problem: Once you’ve put these nuggets of information about Point A and Z in a player's head, it burrows deep inside. Players begin to think, I need to get my hips to this point or my wrist to this point, and then everything will be fine. We live in a world of instant gratification; this is just another example of a quick fix.
During the process of changing a shot, every single NBA player I’ve worked with at some point has said to me, “Just tell me what to do.” They want Point Z. They believe they can just replicate what Point Z is once they know, but that’s not how shooting works. To change a shot, you must go through the roadmap of Point B -> Y before you can shoot your unique Point Z shot.
Harry Potter didn’t just show up for his final battle with Lord Voldemort without destroying all of the Horcruxes first. He had to walk the path, take the journey, and understand the “why” behind the process.
Shane Battier makes sure to state that they need strong interpreters. The ESPN article has a sample report from BreakAway Data; it’s fantastic, a true goldmine of pertinent data, and one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen! The key to changing a shot is a strong roadmap; it’s needed to cultivate sustainable habits that will turn into instincts when the speed of the game kicks in.
Shooting is an exercise in transferring energy. When shooting, you are kinetically linking power from your body to the ball. It’s like launching a rocket ship, a series of simple machines working in a perfectly timed and balanced sequence to create a lift-off. Everything is connected; if you tinker with X, then it affects Y. Butterfly wings.
Voice-over video of Ausar’s shooting mechanics.
Ausar’s shooting mechanics reflect the search for biomechanical perfection in a vacuum. There are perfect angles throughout the shot; his hips, knees, elbow, and wrist all scream “textbook.” However, there’s no connective tissue; the ball and the body are disconnected. They are not working as a team. It’s like all the engineers at NASA just laid out the parts of the rocket on the floor and never put them together.
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The Offensive Linchpin:
Spot-ups are the epicenter of the 3&D role.
At the core of the Spot-up action is shooting. It’s the linchpin to opening up space on the court for yourself and your teammates. Shooting is the foundation needed to build the rest of the spot-up game around.
If you can’t shoot it, then attacking opportunities become less frequent.
If you don’t have attacking opportunities, then you won’t be able to finish or playmaker for others.
In the piece about Malik Beasley’s development plan from 2018/19, I talked about the concept of a “Dare You” to shoot closeouts. Ausar is experiencing something more extreme; let’s call it a “Double Dog Dare You” closeout. Teams have decided to clog the lane by playing so far off him that they are, of course, daring him to shoot, but more so, daring his teammates to pass to him.
According to Synergy, Ausar is currently shooting an eFG% of 38.8 in Spot-Up opportunities. That percentage puts him in the bottom five of all players in the NBA with at least 100 Spot-Up opportunities.
Voice-over video of “Double Dog Dare You” closeouts vs. Ausar.
Strong side help is a cardinal sin for an NBA defense. But Ausar’s defender isn’t afraid of showing early strong side help to clog the lane and funnel the ball to Asuar.
Herb Jones is an All-NBA defender. He played mind games with Ausar by clogging the lane to stop rim attacks and then choosing not to guard Ausar when he caught the ball.
Finishing Plays At The Rim In Transition:
The athleticism jumps off the screen; my god! There are times watching the tape that I think, “This might be the most athletic person in the league.” he’s that much of an outlier athletically. Unfortunately, the lack of skill jumps off the screen, too.
Because skill is about transferring energy, the quality of your ball handling will ultimately determine how much of your athleticism can translate into the finishing. The body has to move in rhythm and balance with the basketball for the player to access their athleticism.
Finishing can be broken up into two macro-categories:
Live dribble:
The player must pick up the basketball from a dribble; a pick-up is a mix of footwork and handwork. If you can execute a clean pickup while staying in rhythm and on balance, then you can finish with power. The quality of your ball-handling skill will directly affect how much of your power can be transferred to the finishing action.
Non-live dribble:
Does not require a pick-up, only a catch. This type of finish is all about basketball IQ and athleticism; if you can put yourself in the right place at the right time, then you can finish with power.
Producing the equation Rhythm + Balance = Power during a non-live dribble finish is much easier than a live dribble finish. Fewer variables are happening, mainly a live dribble, and solving an equation with fewer variables is always easier.
It’s no different than shooting from a catch vs. live dribble. NBA players shot +3.6% points better on catch-and-shoot (36.4) threes than off-the-dribble (32.8) threes in 21/22. Here is a link to a best ball stats article about it; Kirk Goldsberry also referenced this concept in his book Sprawball.
The main reason for this difference is that there are fewer variables to account for during catch-and-shoot shots than live dribble ones. That’s because it is easier to perform one skill (shooting) than to stack multiple skills (ball handling -> shooting) on top of one another.
The same is true for non-live dribble finishing vs. live dribble finishing—the fewer variables involved, the better.
Finishing off two feet vs. one foot highlights the difference between solving complex multiple-skill R+B = P equations and simple singular ones.
There is a difference between stopping on two feet and launching your body off two feet. Everything must be viewed in context, and the context of whether the player is under control or out of control will determine if you can successfully transfer power or not during finishing (shooting, too).
If you are jumping off two feet from a live dribble, a few things happen that reduce the chances of successfully finishing the play:
Out of Control:
You are most likely out of control (OC) due to the body and the basketball not moving in rhythm, a.k.a. bad ball handling (skill). Any OC player cannot transfer power as efficiently as a player under control (UC).
Point A -> B Jumper:
The two-foot jump from the live dribble produces less power and puts the defender in a more advantageous position in the referee’s eyes.
Voice-over video of Ausar’s live ball one-foot finishes vs. two-foot finishes.
Because this jump is OC, it has lots of momentum going sideways and forward. This means the offensive player will hit the defender and continue traveling in the same direction. This lets the defender off the hook for any potential foul.
There is contact on EVERY play in the NBA, and referees could call a foul on every possession. They must keep the game flowing as best as possible, and that means not awarding fouls on plays when a player is creating contact from a disadvantaged OC action.
Non-live dribble finishes are not about skill. They are about being in the right place at the right time, but athleticism matters here more than anything else. No dribble is required before the jump, so transferring power here is more straightforward and significantly easier than with a live dribble. It takes technique, IQ, and athleticism, similar to a wide receiver catching a pass.
Basketball IQ & WIMS:
WIMS (where is my space) cuts are my favorite part of the game. Players must “feel” when the defensive shell is cracking and read where the space is that they can cut into so the ball can get to them. The higher the basketball IQ of the player, the better they will be at WIMS reads.
There are two different directions a WIMS cut can go:
Towards the basket for a finish.
Towards space on the perimeter for a shot.
Even with the lack of gravity from his shooting, Ausar still makes excellent WIMS cuts for finishes. He is one of the best rookies I’ve seen at sensing when his defender mentally disengages and shifts their focus to only the ball. He has fantastic instincts!
Voice-over video of Ausar’s best WIMS cuts for finishes this season.
If his shot ever got to where he trusted himself as a shooter, I think he would also make great WIMS cuts for shots. He is a high IQ player with a wonderful “feel” for when the shell cracks.
However, there are currently too many times when he doesn’t know where his space is on the floor. Typically, this happens to a player because of a low basketball IQ, but not Ausar; he has a high basketball IQ. He is in the wrong place or making an incorrect read because he actively looks for ways not to shoot the ball. If he’s not in the correct space to catch and shoot, then it isn’t as glaring as if he was and turned down the shot or missed.
Moving Forward:
Between Ausar’s basketball IQ and athleticism, there are plenty of reasons to want to bet on him. But that bet will hinge on the META skill, shooting. Getting this skill to league average would turn him into the premiere young 3&D player and make him a fan favorite in Detroit and all around the league.
Ausar has made 12 of 82 threes this season, good for 14.6% from three, and with his current mechanics, I do not believe that the three-point shot will be a plus action for him anytime soon. So, playing the 3&D role might be a little down the line.
But, recently, the Pistons have tried playing Ausar at the four more, and it’s been highly effective. Per Cleaning The Glass, Ausar has played the four in 332 possessions this season; during that time, the team is +19.2.
^^ I did filter three specific players into the “off-court” category to keep the lineup data more recent since these three players are currently out of the rotation or traded: Killian Hayes, James Wiseman, and Marvin Bagley. If you add them back into the mix, Ausar has played 676 possessions at the four, and the team is -0.2 during that time.
Until Ausar can become competent at shooting the ball, he can not be counted on to play the wing effectively. It’s too much of an ask of an NBA offense to be able to function when there is such a glaring point of negative gravity.
I believe that any shot can be fixed. It’s just about installing the proper habits in the correct sequence. I’m rooting for Ausar. He’s been one of the most fun watches all season, and I believe he has the potential to be the apex 3&D player for the next decade.
Great read!
This is awsome!
Thank you so much!