Memphis: Three Big Things
The Memphis Grizzlies are having a bounce back season in 24/25, but will it lead to success or the same old story come playoff time?
The Three BIG Things:
Can Ja Morant be the best player on a great team?
Will their offensive “zag” work when it matters most?
The fun young guys!
Can Ja Morant be the best player on a Conference Finals Team?
Morant is an All-NBA player who has recently made the playoffs three times (twice as a top-two seed) as the alpha of this Memphis team.
During those trips to the playoffs, two key warts in Morant’s game were exposed, and I’ve yet to see him show significant development in either one in the years following.
The NBA regular season allows the athletic, non-shooting lead guard archetype like Morant to keep their warts strategically camouflaged. Teams are working on their big-picture habits (GTO), they’re not trying to install a detailed coverage scheme that would take specific actions away (FEP) during a 1/82 game.
GTO vs. FEP:
In Seth Partnow’s book, Midrange Theory, an entire chapter is dedicated to the theory behind a famous Draymond Green quote: “There are 82-game players, then there are 16-game players.”
Seth digs into why that quote rings true and sums it up perfectly when discussing the importance of a role. He says:
“The best must be able to do their best against the best. If you can’t do this, you can’t exist in the 16.”
Last year, I explored why SGA might win the MVP but wasn’t quite ready to be the best player on a championship team1 (you can read it here).
Here’s a look at Morant’s winning percentage in the regular season (GTO) vs. the playoffs (FEP) during the three years he went.
Morant’s Winning Percentage: (Regular Season vs. Playoff)
Regular Season: 144-88 (.620)
Playoff: 7-12 (0.368)
The raw numbers don’t tell the whole story about Morant. His counting stats are impressive, and he consistently poses a threat to deliver highlight plays that attract millions of views on any given night. Both factors contribute to his immense popularity among fans!
However, when it comes to Morant, it’s all about efficiency and fear.
Morant has never had a season with an FG% over 50 or a TS% over 60. Those are basketball’s Mendoza Lines for efficiency, and he’s never crossed one in his entire career.
Space is the most valuable commodity on the basketball court, and players who can create it for their teammates through fear are at the core of every exceptional playoff offense.
If you’re a lead guard, like Ja Morant, who is trying to be the best player on a championship team2, you better have a rocket launcher attached to your body to create fear in defenders, leading to space for teammates.
The average distance of a Morant PnR over the lifetime of his trips to the playoffs is 23.3 feet from the hoop.
That’s inside the three-point line and almost six feet closer than the average distance between Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson’s PnRs in last year’s playoffs. (If you want to see why distance of PnR is such an important stat, check out this breakdown of Luka Doncic from last year’s Western Conference Finals here).
Morant’s 24/25 PnR Numbers: (filtered for 500 PnR’s run)(69 players Qualify)
Total: 561 (10th percentile)
Per 100: 29.1 (34th percentile)
PPD: 0.986 (37th percentile)
Possession Points Per Game: 16.1 (47th percentile)
Average distance of PnR: 24.5 Feet (18th percentile)
Morant’s Playoff PnR Numbers: (filtered for 200 PnR’s run)(53 players Qualify)
Total: 845 (79th percentile)
Per 100: 49.7 (86th percentile)
PPD: 1.018 (64th percentile)
Possession Points Per Game: 35.7 (92nd percentile)
Average distance of PnR: 23.3 Feet (13th percentile)
The playoffs have a way of exposing your warts. My former college coach, Roy Williams, emphasized these moments with a classic saying, “Failure can be used as a stumbling block or a stepping stone.”
It’s okay to fail and to have your warts exposed, but showing up season after season without addressing them doesn’t give off stepping-stone vibes—quite the opposite.
The Warts:
Shooting:
This one is pretty straightforward. Morant shoots a classic “push” shot. He reminds me of a former teammate of mine, Ty Lawson. Ty was an outlier athlete at the lead guard spot who always had plenty of time to line up his shot because defenders were so scared to get close to him (for fear of being blown by).
For me, the story isn’t always about shooting percentages but rather about volume, specifically the volume of shots you turn down and how you see space on the basketball court (downhill vs. 360).
"Unders" in pick-and-roll situations serve as a benchmark for how players perceive space. To be a great lead guard, you don’t need to shoot like Steph Curry, but you must be capable of exploiting “Unders” by taking shots. Morant has frequently avoided these shots since entering the league, and when he does take them, the results are often inefficient because his “push” shot mechanics cannot effectively support this type of shot.
Morant still sees space as downhill: attack, attack and then attack some more. This downhill vs. 360 concept separates the great playoff lead guards from Morant.
Morant Career Shooting Numbers:
Regular Season: 32% on 4.1 3PA.
Playoffs: 35.7% on 5.9 3PA.
I'm not going to dive too deeply into how his shooting mechanics haven’t changed since entering the league and why those specific mechanics result in a limited shot profile. They haven’t, and here’s a quick overview of the main problem:
When Morant loads to shoot, the force is focused in his toes instead of his whole foot. This means the anterior chain exerts more effort than desired during the shot. Consequently, he experiences a lower drop angle, a smaller rim to shoot into and less “flow.” I have broken down how my first client, Malik Beasley, encountered a similar issue (though less severe than Morant's) before we started working together. You can find the detailed breakdown of Malik's shot here, or check out another analysis I did on Ausar Thompson, who also experiences this same issue, here.
Here’s an edit of Morant’s lack of shooting evolution:
Torpedo Finishing:
This is a classic tell of a player who has never learned how to adjust to the athletic filtration system catching up to them. Before the NBA, Morant would have always been the best athlete (except his AAU team with Zion Williamson) and player in every game he played.
Typically, when this is the case, you don’t have to be as locked in on finishing angles, footwork, or handwork. You get to the rim with an advantage and jump into people who are a half or whole step behind the play. Wash, rinse, and repeat. This recipe led to copious amounts of buckets and free throws for Morant in high school, college, and during the NBA regular season.
However, during the playoffs, the situation changes. The athlete pool narrows down and becomes more elite, while defensive coverage becomes more specific and detailed.
In 19 playoff games, Morant has an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 50. In his last two playoff appearances, he’s finished with an eFG% of 48.6.
Actions like these torpedo finishes of launching himself into defenders hoping to be bailed out by the whistle have caused him to shoot 47.8% and 42.7% from two-point range in his last two postseason appearances.
These numbers and the corresponding edits aren’t unique to Morant. That's why many exceptional players at lower levels struggle to make it in the NBA—it’s not easy.
Athleticism is the price of entry into the league, but skill is what keeps you there. If you want to know how to find a player’s ceiling, use this equation:
Skill x Athleticism x Intelligence
Morant’s story isn’t over. There’s still time to develop these warts, but only if he feels he needs to, which appears to be a different story…
If I were Memphis, I would reach out to Leo and Chris to see if they could inception the idea of Mike Miller’s two biggest clients playing together in Orlando in his head. Maybe coax Franz Wagner out of Orlando and into a Memphis uniform.
Wagner is one of those players who’s ready to be the top option on a relevant team, but the opportunity doesn’t seem to be available in Orlando. Perhaps, just perhaps, you could get Miller to apply enough pressure on Orlando (I doubt it) to make it happen.
Will the Memphis “Zag” Work In The Playoffs?
Over the 24/25 season, Memphis has been making one of the biggest “zags” in the league. Instead of using PnR and Handoff actions, the flavor de jour of modern NBA basketball, they have focused on breaking down individual defenders in ISO action and using intelligent off-ball movement (WIMS Reads) to play from the advantage.
Memphis has run 1,448 ISO actions this year, about 26 per 100 possessions, the most in the NBA.
Here’s Ben Taylor of “Thinking Basketball” breaking down the 24/24 Memphis offense.
I love the 2nd window WIMS movements I see from Memphis off the ball; it’s beautiful to watch an entire NBA team move intelligently without the ball. I’ve even been impressed with Morant’s commitment to the WIMS actions. Typically, it’s challenging to get a dominant on-ball player like Morant to engage with these WIMS actions.
They’re also playing fast, almost faster than anyone in the league, Memphis is currently 2nd in the league behind Atlanta in possession per game at 103.2.
While this is great for the regular season, the game traditionally slows down in the playoffs, here is a Sportico piece that shows those trend lines. How Memphis deals with the slowing pace and shrinking space in the playoffs will be an key test of their “zag."
This Memphis team has been a fun and refreshing hang for many NBA fans. They play hard and have one of the biggest rotations in the league, regularly playing 11 to 12 guys.
They’re 2nd in a crowded western conference, at 36-18. Dig deeper into those numbers, and a troubling trend reveals itself.
Memphis Record vs. Top 6 and Bottom 17:
Top 6: 10-11 (0.476)
Bottom 17: 26-7 (0.787)
Memphis has been underwhelming against teams that are developing habits for the postseason, primarily because they aren’t effectively breaking down the defensive shell through ISO drives that lead to production. Good teams don’t allow you to consistently break them down without mixing in some “Panic Thinking” actions.
If you filter the Memphis offense by PPD Drive, the trends will remain consistent. Only two of their top 10 PPD Drive games are against top 6 opponents: Indiana and Minnesota.
Eight of their ten worst PPD Drive games were against the top six opponents. They lost all eight: two against LAC, two against HOU, and one to each of DEN, OKC, NYK, and LAL.
The best teams contain the ball, shrink their defensive shell, make bad shooters take more shots than they would like to and contest every attempt.
In order to beat the best teams, you have to have pressure points that you can push, which make them scared of you. Memphis doesn’t have a lot of those and the path for them has the best player in almost any series they play in seems unrealistic.
I like the WIMS concepts within the Memphis offensive “zag,” but can’t see it being anything that lights the world on fire in the playoffs.
The “Others”
This Memphis roster is a tailored made plug-and-play for a true 1A guy. This team would be an absolute playoff force, contending for titles year after year.
The supporting cast here is really fun, and they certainly know how to play basketball!
I really like a lot of the young vets who have been paid, especially Brandon Clarke, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr.
But the collection of late-round draft picks who have thrived, including Santi Aldama, Jaylen Wells, GG Jackson, and Vince Williams Jr. These four players will bring in 9.2 million this season. No other quartet of players on any roster offers the same level of production at such a low cost.
This group of four players makes up about 5.5% of the team's total salary but contributes significantly with 32% of the scoring, 37% of the rebounds, and 26% of the assists. The value that Memphis is getting from this group is remarkable!
These players are all on rookie contracts, and 24 and under. They will eventually be looking for the bag. Ultimately, decisions will need to be made regarding who will be part of the core moving forward and who will be involved in consolidation trades.
However, at this moment, the combination of talent, intelligence, and teamwork of the “others” is the best in the league.
Throwback of Puppy Marzie Hiding Out In One Of Her Favorite Spots!
Ps. She ate a hole in that runner when when my wife was giving birth to our daughter. Dead center. Right in the middle. Marzie is how the French would say, émotionnelle.
SGA has tried to remove these warts this season, but he usually returns to his tried-and-true style when the rubber meets the road.
Lead guards who have recently been to the Conference Finals: Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Anthony Edwards, James Harden, Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young, Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, Tyler Herro… Do you see a theme here?!