It's Award Season... Feat. Matt Moore
We dive into the candidates and get Matt’s picks for my four favorite awards: MIP, 6MOY, EOY, and MVP!! Plus, why the MVP race isn't particularly close this year
Entire conversation with Matt More
I'm confident that if you’re a basketball fan, you've already subscribed to Matt’s Substack (unless you’re living under a rock, of course). But if not, do yourself a favor and subscribe for the best NBA coverage. Matt has been writing about the NBA for over two decades, and his coverage is unmatched!
As always, The Low Man Help Podcast would not be possible without our outstanding producer, Jacob Sutton - Check out his work here!
Odds provided by FanDuel
MVP:
FanDuel doesn’t have odds available for anyone other than Jokic or SGA. This is a two-horse race coming down to the season's final week, and according to the betting world, it’s not a particularly close one.
I land on the Jokic side of this equation. I can see how an argument for team success could lead you down the road of SGA as the MVP, but I have to squint really, really hard to see it.
This MVP race has included some of the weirdest statements from the people with the biggest microphones. Here are two of my favorite ones.
Kendrick Perkins:
April 3rd, 2025
So he’s too good to be MVP? Thank god Danny Green (friend of the program) was there to be a voice of reason.
Stephen A. Smith:
“We ain't going to do that today; we ain't going to start this narrative where Shai-Gilgeous Alexander gets compromised for league MVP again like he did last year.”
March 9th, 2025
Conversation from 5:30 to 8:00 if you want some brain rot in your life.
By the way, this all stemmed from Kendrick Perkins congratulating Jokic on his previous game, where he recorded the first ever 30-20-20 game in NBA history during a win over the Suns.
SGA Stats:
Counting Stats: 32.8/5.0/6.3 (1st in the league in scoring)
Shooting Splits: 52/37.3/90.1 (eFG 56.9%)
Shooting Volume: 21.7/5.7/9.0
Fun Stats: SGA puts up 16 two-point attempts per game and shoots them at a 57.2% clip. This is an amazing number for a guard with his shot profile. He’s got some of the best footwork and Core 3 changes (speed, levels, and direction) in the entire league.
SGA is on pace for 69 games of 20 minutes or more without a single game in the minus.1
Jokic Stats:
Counting Stats: 29.7/12.8/10.2
Shooting Splits: 57.5/41.6/80.3 (eFG 62.5%)
Shooting Volume: 19.6/4.7/6.6
Fun Stats: Jokic is Top 3 in the league in Points, Rebounds, Assists, and Steals… this has never been done before in the league's history.
The deciding factor in this year's MVP race can be found within Jokic and SGA’s on/off numbers per Cleaning The Glass. Oklahoma City is an absolute juggernaut with SGA on the floor, but without him, they’re still one of the best teams in the league.
Here’s the breakdown from GLG:
SGA On-Court: 5,193 Possessions
O Rating: 124.1 (11.1 points better with SGA on the court)
D Rating: 107
Net Rating: +17.1
SGA Off-Court: 2,035 Possessions
O Rating: 113 (21st)
D Rating: 106.3 (1st)
Net Rating: +6.7 (3rd in the league, BOS and CLE are the only team better)
SGA On/Off Net Rating: +10.4
Jokic On-Court: 4,957 Possessions
O Rating: 128.2 (21.6 points better with Jokic on the court)
D Rating: 116.7
Net Rating: +11.4
Jokic Off-Court: 2,558 Possessions
O Rating: 106.6 (29th in the league, only better than Washington)
D Rating: 115.9 (25th in the league)
Net Rating: -9.2 (29th in the league, only better than Washington)
Jokic On/Off Net Rating: +20.6
For those who believe SGA’s defense is the deciding factor, it’s really difficult for me to agree, considering they are almost identical in terms of their on/off-net defensive rating.
Oklahoma City is an elite defensive team that stays an elite defensive team when SGA is off the floor. Oklahoma City’s defense is 0.7 points better when SGA is off the floor.
Denver is a sub-par defensive team that continues to be sub-par when Jokic is off the floor. Denver’s defense is 0.8 points better when Jokic is off the floor.
If voters declare defense as the deciding factor, then look no further: the Net 0.1 in SGA’s defensive contributions is more valuable than the Net 10.5 in Jokic’s favor from their offensive contributions.
Is it SGA’s fault that his teammates, Front Office, and Coaching staff are some of the best in the league? Hell No!! But does it highlight how much more value Nikola Jokic brings to his team? Yes.
Without Jokic, Denver is Washington, except without the hope of a stable of young prospects who could maybe pop. Has Denver been able to hit some high points with Jokic out? Absolutely. They’ve beaten two of the top teams in the West recently without Jokic (Golden State and Houston). NBA players are amazing, and at any point, they can put together an outlier game. What separates the best from the rest in the NBA is their floor, not their peaks.
The floor for Denver without Jokic is bleak, while the floor in Oklahoma City without SGA is among the elites.
Pick: Nikola Jokic
It’s not close.
SGA is a fantastic player; he’s spectacular, but to say he delivers more value to a team than Jokic when his team would be 1st in the league in defense and 3rd in net rating for the season without him on the court isn’t how we should determine value2.
Both of these players are truly amazing. SGA is having an all-time season, and I understand why he’s the pick for many narrative-based voters. He’s got a fun story, and it’s always the new shiny toy that the narrative flocks to.
Still, we should appreciate the greatness offensive season ever when we see it and not fault a player just because they’ve already been great for a sustained period.
MIP:
How you define the MIP will determine who you are picking. Most awards are like this: they're all subjective to how you define the award and what you value in players and basketball. However, the MIP has more variance than any other award.
I think JJ Redick hit the nail on the head as to what the award has become:
"Just call it the high draft pick that's on a max contract and now is an all star. Just call it that. Whoever's that guy because that's what it has become"
I fall on the side that it’s much harder to earn a bigger role, and trust from a coaching staff than it is to just be better at the role you’ve already had from a FO and coaching staff that is desperate for you to hit so that they will be praised (job security).
Pick: Christian Braun
Maybe my time covering Dyson Daniels for
during the Olympics numbed me to his breakout. Everything I saw in Atlanta this season was what I expected from him after watching him over the summer.He’s been amazing, and if he wins this award, it will be well-deserved too! There are no wrong answers when it comes to this years MIP.
6th MOY:
This one is more well defined than almost any other award we have in the league:
Highest bench scorer on one of the best teams in the league wins the award.
Pick: Payton Pritchard
2024/25 Season Averages:
Counting Stats: 14.4/3.8/3.3 in 28 minutes per game.
Shooting Splits: 46.4/41/83.8
Fun Advanced Stat: 74% of his shots are three point attempts (7.9 3PA Per Game).
He’s also a Danny Green All-Star!!
COY:
There is a lot of talent in this category. Do you favor the win improvements, or do you look at who is doing more with less? Who has gotten buy-in from guys who previously wouldn’t give buy-in?
Pick: Mark Daigneault
I favor schemes that put your players in the best position to win. I highly value getting buy-in from players to put the team above themselves and getting their trust that this concept will be best for them in the long run. At this level, getting that buy-in is the hardest thing to do.
Daigneault has done both of these things in spades!
EOY:
I can’t find these odds on any legitimate gambling websites. Given how you define the award, this one is interesting to me.
Are you judging by who has put the best team on the floor?
Are you judging by who made the best moves (draft and trades) during the year?
Are you judging by who has done the best financial gymnastics with their current situation?
Obviously, all of these matter, but how much do you weigh each one, and can one big thing swing the whole thing in one executive's favor?
Pick: Rob Pelinka
The Luka Doncic trade outweighs everything else done throughout the year. Pelinka added a generational talent to his roster at a discount before the asset even hit the open market. It doesn’t get better than this. Before this trade, there were many worthy candidates, but this deal is akin to inventing sliced bread. Does anything else even compare to sliced bread?
Marzie Is The MVP Of LMH!!
The NBA Cup Final against Milwaukee, when SGA finished with a -17, does not count as a game in the record books.
I understand that others might have a different definition of value. This is a subjective award.
 | A guest post by
|
 | A guest post by
|