The "Puncher's Chance" Contenders
In the past two playoffs, Luka Doncic and Jimmy Butler propelled their teams to the Finals from outside the inner circle of contenders. Here are four teams that could make a similar run this season.
I filled in for Tim Legler on the All-NBA pod with Adam Mares yesterday. We highlighted four teams with a puncher’s chance of making it to the NBA Finals.
Here is a look at the probability of each team making the PO and Finals from our friend of the program,
.I consider these to be the five teams currently in the inner circle of contenders: Boston, Cleveland, Oklahoma City, Denver, and Los Angeles (LAL).
Western Conference:
Golden State Warriors:
Here’s what I thought about the Jimmy Butler trade when it happened:
“Death line ups are back!!!
Okay, they might not be as juicy as those from the Kevin Durant era, but I doubt anything will ever come close to reaching that level of fear on a basketball court again.
I don’t know Jimmy Butler, and he seems pretty challenging to deal with when he’s not getting his way. However, I haven’t seen anyone unhappy while playing basketball with Steph Curry during the season's most crucial games.
My friend Kevin Pangos often says that the most important thing to remember when choosing the right college during recruitment is:
Go somewhere where they have had success coaching a player like you before.
If Andre Iguodala was the original, then Jimmy Butler is the remix, baby!
Mike Dunleavy Jr. was a teammate of a young Jimmy Butler in Chicago, which is significant. Former teammates share a bond that allows open and honest communication that non-teammates cannot achieve as quickly.
Golden State has been lights out since acquiring Butler at the February 6th trade deadline! Sporting a 12-2 record, while ranking in the top five of offensive, defensive, and NET rating:
O: 119.8 (5th)
D: 109.5 (4th)
NET: +10.2 (4th)
My favorite things about this team is that they know exactly how and where they can bring two players to the basketball…
Steph Curry is this team's north star, and his PnR actions guarantee high-level offense for either himself (if you don’t blitz) or his teammates (if you do blitz).
In PnR situations, Curry leads the league in average distance from the hoop (29.2), and during his last trip to the playoffs, he was the most blitzed player in PnR actions, registering a rate above 30%!!
This combination of distance and blitz rate in Curry’s PnR actions sets up Green and Butler as the decision makers in 4v3 advanagtae actions, where they both thrive!
This team knows who they are, and they all have championship experience. They will make noise when the playoffs roll around.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
No matter if it’s the NCAA Tournament, EuroLeague Final 4, or the NBA playoffs, it’s vital to be peaking at the right time, and this team is doing exactly that.
Minnesota is 10-0 over the last ten games that Julius Randle has played in and currently spots a top-10 Offensive, Defensive, and NET rating for the season.
During Randle’s previous 43 games, he averaged 4.5 assists, 3.0 turnovers, and 7.75 potential assists per game.
However, during this stretch since Randle returned from injury, he’s averaging 5.5 assists, 2.3 turnovers, and 9.8 potential assists per game. That’s 26% more potential assist per game than in November, December, and January.
I believe that Randle’s time watching the team when he was injured gave him a new perspective of where he could fit in best and what the team needed from him to hit their ceiling. Sometimes sitting out can help a player see the bigger picture and Randle’s new perspective has been a key element in Minnesota's hitting its stride at precisely the right time.
Eastern Conference:
Milwaukee Bucks:
Whenever you have a Monstars player on your team, you’ve got a chance, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is just that—otherworldly.
Since starting the season 2-8, Milwaukee has kicked it into gear. They’re 34-20 since that stretch, including impressive wins in playoff-esque situations via the NBA Cup (it just means more!).
Lillard + Antetokounmpo Two Man Games:
PnR: 21.2 Per 100 | 1.117 Points Per Direct | 4.12 Blitz Rate |
Handoff: 5.889 Per 100 | 1.162 Points Per Direct | 24.2 Avg. Distance From Hoop |
Good luck guarding this action…
Antetokounmpo is the ideal blitz deterrent for Lillard. The fear of letting Antetokounmpo play 4v3 downhill makes defenses reconsider coming to the level, allowing Lillard semi-open pull-up three opportunities. A 4.12 blitz rate for a shooter like Lillard is unheard of. These guys are figuring out how to amplify each other, and it’s fun!
The 24.2 average distance from the hoop pops on film as well. Many times, the handoff action feels like a bailout option for Antetokounmpo. I believe there's more juice to be squeezed from this action by extending it further, creating more space behind the action for Antetokounmpo to attack in a 4v3 situation.
Last season, we didn’t get to see what type of fear Lillard and Antetokounmpo would create in a series together, I’m excited to see it this year.
Indiana Pacers:
Only one team this season has two of the top 5 PnR combinations in the league, the Indiana Pacers.
Haliburton PnR Partners:
Turner: 23.2 Per 100 | 1.222 Points Per Direct | 3rd Best PnR in NBA |
Siakam: 15.2 Per 100 | 1.207 Points Per Direct | 4th Best PnR in NBA\
Indiana knows its primary, secondary, and emergency actions when it enters playoff basketball. I like teams where everyone knows the goal and no one cares who gets the credit.
No one embodies that statement more than Andrew Nembhard. When Nembhard and Haliburton are on the court together, this is one of the best teams in the league.
Per CLG, they’ve shared the court for 2,315 possessions this season and sport a +9.4 NET rating over that span. Here are some words I wrote for
about why Nembhard is so important to this Indiana team.
My wife took Marzie and me out for beers (of course, nothing above 4.6 ABV for Marzie) after my first podcast ever last season. This picture is from that day!
