Jaden Ivey and The NBA's Filtration System
Untapped Promise
Draft Night 2022:
With the fourth pick in the 2022 draft, The Sacramento Kings selected Keegan Murray, a stretch four out of Iowa University. The vision was to pair him alongside their two franchise cornerstones, Fox and Sabonis, who thrive at getting downhill off the bounce.
Adding Murray’s shooting and gravity would provide more space to work for their two All-Stars to work. Even though the thought process behind it made sense, it felt like a big zag to some prognosticators when it happened. The consensus amongst the masses was Jaden Ivey was the best talent available at the pick, and the Kings had made another Kingesian move by passing him up.
So far, Murray has been a seamless fit from day one in Sacramento. His shooting, cutting, and positional versatility helped the Kings make their first playoff appearance after sixteen straight years on the outside looking in.
I tell my clients, “You never go broke hitting singles.” There’s no need to force a homerun swing when it isn’t there; that kind of thought process depletes trust among your teammates and coaches. But every so often, the defense makes a mistake, and a simple “single” read turns into a homerun highlight!
The King's selection of Murray at four made the Piston's job with the next pick straightforward: take the best player available who also happens to have the most significant potential. Enter Jaden Ivey, the single that can become a giant home run!
Ivey’s Floor Skill and The NBA Filtration System:
Ivey is an elite athlete with natural electricity when the ball is in his hands. He possesses an elite-level “first-step” burst when attacking downhill.
Coming out of Purdue, he was seen as a player with the floor skill of getting downhill and putting relentless pressure on defenses by attacking the rim. He was an outlier athlete in college, and his Synergy stats from his last year give a compelling look at his effectiveness in getting downhill and finishing plays.
In Ivey’s final season at Purdue, spot-ups were the only action where he wasn’t above the 50th percentile mark. His spot-up actions were not primarily downhill attacks, and they gave Ivey his most significant issue. He made 29 of 88 FGs in spot-ups: 10/25 on twos (40%) and 19/63 on threes (30.2%) for an eFG% of 43.8. This was his only action at Purdue, where his eFG% was under 50.
If Ivey could translate his relentless pressure on the rim from college to the NBA, he would become an absolute menace for a defensive shell to contain. However, doing the actual translation from college to the NBA can be very difficult.
Two factors go into seeing if this skill can translate:
Speed and Athletism Increase:
Ivey was an outlier college athlete, but small guards are rarely able to transfer this status to the NBA. Most NBA outlier athletes like Zion, Giannis, or Lebron are physically bigger than everyone else in addition to being elite athletes.
In the league, Ivey transitioned out of outlier status for the first time in his basketball-playing life. That meant going from being a full one and a half steps ahead of everyone on the court to just a half step ahead. This is significant.
Defensive Coverage Reads:
In college, Ivey’s outlier status allowed for way more forgiveness if he misread a coverage; he could still drive the ball and obtain a positive result. Outlier athletes can blow up the angles that others can not. Remember, they’re outliers.
But in the NBA, if you’re not an outlier, then a short “Dare You” closeout equals a shot; if you try to drive it, the angles are too tight. If you make a bad process read in the league, you'll be left with bad results.
Ivey’s first year in the league was an adjustment period. It is not uncommon for players to dip in efficiency when they experience the filtration system firsthand. The NBA is a unique brand of basketball, and rookies need time to adjust.
Shooting Interlude:
Shooting the basketball is an exercise in transferring energy. I have worked with three NBA players on changing their shot and produced an average jump of 5.8% in three-point percentage. If you want to read about my philosophy on shooting and see the changes to an NBA player’s shot, please click on this link to check out Malik Beasley’s before and after shooting mechanics.
For a primarily downhill player like Ivey, shooting is usually the clear and obvious skill that, if improved to a certain level, will open up a whole new world for them “gravity-wise” on the court.
Ivey has a few red flag habits in his shooting mechicans. The main red flag is his narrow base and how it affects what specific power can/can’t be loaded to transfer from his body to the ball. His narrow base does not allow him to drive power up and through the hips to the shot; instead, he has to generate “push” power out from his chest to the ball.
Shots with primarily “push” power have two main issues that reduce the chance of success:
Reduces the drop angle of the shot:
A smaller drop angle shrinks the size of the rim Ivey is shooting into. The more rim you can shoot into, the better.
Dependency on a smaller muscle group for power:
The chest and arms are not nearly as strong of a muscle group as the hips, hamstrings, and glutes. The chest and arms will burn out quicker, making the power transferred to the shot less consistent. Shooting is all about consistency.
Up and through = Consistent Power
Push Out = Inconsistent Power
If you want to feel how this narrow base can affect where the power comes from for a shot, try performing a squat with a narrow base. Do you feel the power loaded more on the front side of your body or the backside?
Needing to “push” the shot requires you to think about two things: calibrating the power and aiming the shot. Even if it’s subconscious, this is thinking, and successful shooting at the NBA level is all about having such deeply ingrained habits that they turn into instincts on the court.
Ivey’s Epicenter & Problamatic Coverages:
Ivey’s world moving forward in Detroit involves Cade Cunningham playing the lead guard and the offensive hub role. Ivey’s primary actions are spot-up and second-side ball handler when playing with Cade and lead guard/offensive hub role without Cade.
This jack-of-all-trades guard role means he has to be well-versed in two epicenters: Spot-Up and PnR. These two currently take up equal parts of his game.
In basketball, defense is always an if/then equation. So, if the defense is focused on stopping Ivey from going downhill, then they are willing to give him shots. He has to beat “Dare You” closeouts and “unders” to unlock his game and take it to its next level.
According to Synergy, of all players this season with at least 100 PnR opportunities, Ivey is shooting the eighth-worst eFG% at 41.6, and his 0.804 PPP is the twelfth worst in the league.
To Ivey’s credit, he is shooting vs. “under,” he isn’t shying away from the challenge. But the goal is to be able to make enough shots to flip the “unders” to “overs” and allow Ivey to wreak havoc with his electric downhill play.
According to Synergy, of all players this season with at least 100 Spot-up opportunities, Ivey has the worst TO% in the entire NBA at 12.5 and is shooting the fifth worst eFG% at 39.7. He is shooting 28.6% from three in spot-up situations.
Ivey’s poor Spot-Up actions are a mix of misreads/hesitation to shoot vs. “Dare You” closeouts and going too fast when catching the ball. I wrote a piece on this quagmire called What Keyser Soze Taught Me About Pump Fakes; click here to check it out.
If the defense does not want you to get downhill, then you will get “Dare You” closeouts.
If you try to drive “Dare You” closeouts that should be shots, then you will turn the ball over.
I asked some players in the league what it was like to guard Ivey, and the response was pretty consistent: He’s a fantastic athlete, but they all felt okay about giving him shots because it meant it would shrink the space available for his athleticism to overwhelm them.
This is the overall theme for Ivey’s game right now. The linchpin to unlock his game is shooting the basketball, the META skill, and the tide that raises all ships.
Potential Solutions:
I believe in development and improvement at my core. If you can identify problems at their root cause, it’s always possible to improve them.
Ivey’s Shot:
Shooting is the META skill of basketball, and an improved shot makes everything else easier on the court. His shooting red flags have been the same since at Purdue. Ivey has to get to the root of the issues that are causing the “push” shot symptoms.
Win more point-of-attack moments with skill:
Winning at the point-of-attack vs. “Dare You” closeouts, “Unders,” and soft switches are all about skill. Three specific skills work in rhythm to beat these actions consistently:
High-level footwork:
Any point-of-attack footwork aims to put you in rhythm and on balance to shoot or drive the basketball. Keeping both options available as long as possible through footwork is vital. Too often, Ivey only gives himself the option to drive, not shoot through his footwork.
Core 3 changes:
Speed
Levels
Directions
When players refer to the game slowing down for them, more than likely, they are starting to use these Core 3 changes more and more. This results in them playing more under control than out of control, which, in turn, slows the game down for them.
Fast isn’t always fast, and slow isn’t always slow.
At the point of attack in ISO actions, Ivey does a fantastic job of using good Core 3 changes when getting downhill. He’s got these Core 3 changes in his game; it’s just about being able to translate them to other actions. Here are some of my favorite Core 3 changes to attacks from Ivey this season:
Consistent (good) shooting mechanics:
Ivey’s shooting base/mechanics are built to shoot a “push” shot. Raising the level of his shooting mechanics will open up a whole new world for him on the basketball court; this is the final POA “skill” and the most important.
When you are an athletic outlier your whole life, you can get everywhere you want on the court because of your God-given gifts and have plenty of time to get shots off because people fear getting anywhere near you.
But in the league, the angles are just a bit tighter, and these three particular skills become the difference between putting yourself in an advantageous position to use elite athleticism while still playing in rhythm & on balance or not.
What happens with these three point-of-attack skills will determine Ivey's career trajectory.
Moving Forward:
Ivey cares. He’s a guy you want to be teammates with; he comes from an exceptional basketball family and is willing to be a “we, not me” player, even in the face of a historically bad season.
But he’s currently 176 for 521 from three for his career, and the current mechanics don’t suggest he should be a lot better than a 33.7% shooter. The percentage matters, but it’s the fear or lack thereof that his shot inspires in defenders; he has to raise the level of that fear. An improvement at the root level of Ivey’s shooting mechanics would change everything on the court, and you would see a massive jump in every part of his game.
He has exceptional talent, and his ceiling will hinge on developing his three point-of-attack skills. If he can unlock these three skills, he will be an all-star-level player. Making him a home run of a draft pick for the Detroit Pistons.