Killian Hayes and How Small The Margins Are To Make It In The League

In 2020, Detroit selected Killian Hayes with the number seven pick. A young French point guard playing in Germany. He was drafted to be the Piston’s future and jump-start their rebuid.

Development is never a straight line, but the key is to keep problem-solving as you take steps forward. The last thing you want is to see the same problems repeatedly. Killian has continued to run into the same issues over his tenure in Detroit.

Killian’s Floor Skill:

If you are drafted in the Top 10 as a lead guard, your floor skill will likely be intertwined with PnR play. You must be able to score and play make for others in this two-man action to run an NBA offense.

For his German league team, Ulm, Killian’s offense contained a large chunk of PnRs. According to Synergy, Killian's PnR offense was 41.6% of his pie during the 2019/20 season. 

Over his 176 possessions of individual PnR offense that season, Killian scored 0.841 PPP, putting him in the 62nd percentile in the German league. If you include PnRs with passes, he ran 428 PnRs, producing at a rate of 0.986 PPP, putting him in the 73rd percentile in the German league.

His scoring and playmaking skills would need to translate from the German League to the NBA game to set the floor for Killian. If he could do this, he could become a productive player for the Pistons and have a prosperous career in the NBA.

For a first-round pick, it comes down to seeing if the floor skill can translate from their previous competition to the NBA. Two factors will go into seeing if this skill can translate:

1. Speed and Athleticism Increase: 

The NBA is the most athletic basketball league in the world; you have to be a certain level of athlete to compete, or you get swallowed up, no matter how skilled you might be.

Killian went from being an above-average athlete in the German League to a below-average athlete in the NBA. This drop makes everything on the court a little tighter; if you are in the below-average class of athleticism in the league, then you MUST be in the elite class of skill and basketball IQ to survive.

2. Defensive Coverage Changes: 

The NBA is its own unique brand of basketball. The athleticism, size, and specific rules produce defensive coverages different from any other basketball league. The level of athlete and specific PnR coverages Killian saw in the German league were wildly different from those he was about to witness in the NBA.

Aggressive coverages at the level of the screen are more common in European and college basketball. In the NBA, most teams only get aggressive at the level of the screen if the lead guard is ultra-dynamic as a scorer and playmaker, and they NEED the ball out of their hands above all else.

Shooting Interlude:

Shooting the basketball is an exercise in transferring energy. I have worked with three NBA players on changing their shot and produced an average jump of 5.8% in three-point percentage. If you want to read about my philosophy on shooting and see changes to an NBA player’s shot, please click on this link to check out Malik Beasley’s before and after shooting mechanics.

Killian has a few red flag habits in his shooting mechanics. The main red flag habit is where most of his power is loaded right before the hips start their upward motion, aka the point-of-no-return. His power is loaded forward in the toes & knees, ahead of the hips. 

This load of the power ahead of his hips sets him up to naturally “push” power from his chest to get the ball to travel the distance required. Adding this “push” to the shots does two things that reduce the chance of success:

1. Reduces the drop angle of the shot: 

A smaller drop angle shrinks the size of the rim Killian is shooting into. The more rim you can shoot into, the better.

2. Dependency on a smaller muscle group for power: 

The chest and arms are not nearly as strong of a muscle group as the hips, hamstrings, and glutes. The chest and arms will burn out quicker, making the power transferred to the shot less consistent. Shooting is all about consistency.

These red flag habits have existed in Killian’s shooting mechanics since he entered the league four years ago; it is the mark of an inefficient shot. 

Not every player's shot has to be textbook mechanics; each player has a different body, and their shot should be unique to them. But it is not a recipe for success when you are a poor shooter results-wise and continue to have the same poor mechanics process-wise.

Killian’s Epicenters & Problamatic Coverages:

According to Synergy, PnR, and spot-up actions make up 35.3% and 26.7% of Killian’s offense this season, respectively. PnR and shooting the basketball are his top priority epicenters.

Over his 119 individual offensive PnR possessions, Killian has scored 0.664 PPP, putting him in the 16th percentile in the league. If you include PnRs with passes, he’s run 308, scoring at a rate of 0.880 PPP, again putting him in the bottom 29th percentile in the league.

Three things stick out in Killian’s PnR actions: 

1. Finishing or lack thereof:

   Out of the 119 PnR actions that have led to direct offense for him, only five have resulted in finishes at the rim. Two things contribute heavily to his lack of finishing. His athleticism is below average, and his ball-handling/creativity is not strong enough to overcome the lack of athleticism. 

2. High-percentage opportunities created for others or lack thereof:

   The two-point FG shooting percentage from Killian’s PnR passes is 41.4%. This is low for an action yielding many two-on-one opportunities vs. a big playing drop coverage. His lack of finishing at the rim directly influences this number.

Killian playing in 2v1 actions during the 2023/24 season

In two-man game actions, if you are constantly stopping to shoot pull-up midrange shots, you will never create a moment when the drop big must choose between playing two (ball handler & roll man) or committing to covering the ball; this is how lob opportunities happen. Out of all the PnRs he has run this season, only two have resulted in a lob pass being converted for a score, just two. 

The good news is that both happened recently vs. DeAndre Jordan and Brook Lopez in the drop. So, there may be a corner that can be turned here for Killian. It boosts confidence when a player can see something open on film and then translate that knowledge to an actual game setting.

3. Lack of shooting:

   Out of the 119 PnR actions run this season, Killian has only shot six three-point shots. He is a sub-30% three-point shooter for his career, and his shooting mechanics do not suggest that he should be above that mark. Not being respected as a shooter leads to “unders” from defenders guarding the PnR. 

“Under” coverage shrinks the defensive shell. Take away any fear that might create a panic-thinking moment, and kill spacing on offense.

As a lead guard, you must be able to beat them with shots or possess the elite-level athleticism to beat the defender to the other side of the screen; think prime Westbrook or Ja Morant.

If you can’t shoot the ball and are not a top-tier athlete in the league, you are not destined to be a starting lead guard in the NBA.

Potential Solutions:

I believe in development and improvement at my core. If you can identify problems at their root cause, it’s always possible to improve them. 

1. Killian’s Shot: 

This is the most glaring red flag in his game. Shooting is the META skill of basketball, and an improved shot makes everything else easier on the court.

I can highlight a poor habit or say what needs to change, but as I tell every player I work with, it’s not about me telling you what to do; it’s about you understanding why you are doing it. The old teach a man to fish vs. giving him a fish-type philosophy. That can’t be done through text or on film. Only being on the court gets to the root of this problem.

2. Killian’s PnR: 

If his finishing improves, he will create more opportunities where a big playing drop coverage will commit to him, thus opening up more frequent and cleaner lob opportunities. They are two sides of the same coin.

Other lead guards have solved some of the same issues. Darius Garland and Markelle Fultz can show us solutions Killian needs to access to become more dynamic as a PnR finisher and playmaker for his roll man.

Garland is a more diminutive lead guard who doesn’t possess elite vertical athleticism but uses high-level ball handling, footwork, and elite creativity to create high-percentage lob opportunities for his teammates.

Darius does a phenomenal job shooting floaters downhill in the PnR instead of pull-up jumpers. This serves him well in creating a panic-thinking moment when the drop big has to either stay with his roll man or help up the lane to challenge the floater. 

The critical difference between Darius and Killian is their footwork in this action. Darius plays so many of these actions off one foot, meaning his momentum can continue to move forward. This footwork allows Darius to keep the drop big engaged mentally for longer, giving him more time to read if the big breaks coverage to focus all his attention on the ball or stays with the roll man. This creates a simple “Yes or No” read for Darius: 

Does the big break his coverage to you and help up the lane? 

• If the answer is yes, then lob. 

• If the answer is no, then floater.

Meanwhile, Killian continuously uses hop footwork to get into higher-up-the-lane midrange jumpers and push shots that his trailing defender can contest. His hop footwork does two things that specifically hinder his PnR:

• He gives a half step back to his trailing defenders to challenge his shot.

• Allows the drop big to disengage mentally from guarding Killian. 

Allowing the drop big to disengage from him kills all optionality and simplifies defending him in the PnR.

Steve Nash once talked about his mindset in PnR action:

"Feel yours, see his.”

This means that once he was past his defender, he knew where he was and needed to focus his eyes on reading how the drop big would play. Guards who understand and can execute this concept destroy drop coverages in the league, and those who cannot do it usually do not last long.

Fultz is a non-shooting lead guard who has created creative solutions that Killian could integrate into his PnR game. He plays to the beat of his own drum in the PnR and uses his creativity to generate half-step advantages for himself and his roll man. Two things stick out the most here that Killian could try to translate:

1. Lower hips when putting the primary defender in “Jail”:

Putting a defender in “jail” is all about leverage. Fultz does a great job of winning the leverage battle, then exploding out of the action when the screener can seal the drop big (Gortat Screen).

2. One Hand Pickups:

Creativity around the rim is vital to finishing when you’re a guard in the NBA. Defenders are big, athletic, and intelligent. You have to be able to throw off their timing with creative handwork and footwork. Fultz's one-hand pick-up is an excellent tool for not allowing the big to time up the finish.

Moving Forward:

It’s always possible for players at the NBA level to develop; they’re the best athletes in the world and can quickly pick up on things.

1. Shooting: 

It’s not promising to see that the red flag habits in Killian’s shooting mechanics have not changed since his time in Germany. I’m not expecting the shooting mechanics to change anytime soon.

2. PnR: 

Hopefully, the lobs vs. Jordan and Brook will be the start of some more creative handwork, footwork, and thinking from Killian in these actions. 

He has always done an excellent job reading Low Man Help and making good passes to wing players in the PnR. But he’s got to get to the root of the problem in the PnR, the epicenter, which is finishing actions, creating lob opportunities, and making great 2v1 reads vs. drop coverage.