Eastern Conference Win Totals
My Top 5 picks for the 24/25 Season, plus a little sampling about the ten leftover teams.
Win Totals provided by Bet ESPN
Atlanta - 35.5 wins: (3U - Over)
This is the year the Quinn Snyder “blender” era officially begins in Atlanta! I expect these Hawks to surpass the 40-win mark comfortably.
The Dejounte Murray trade is addition by subtraction. While Murray is a high-quality player in a vacuum, his skill set did not complement Trae Young’s, and in Atlanta, like him or not, everything revolves around Young.
Much of my belief in Atlanta comes from covering the Boomers during the Paris Olympics for
and witnessing the summer of Dyson Daniels!Daniels is an absolute demon on the defensive end of the court, and with an increased role, I fully expect Daniels to be in the All-Defensive conversation this year.
He is precisely what Atlanta needs: an All-Defensive guard who can provide cover for Young, be a 2nd side playmaker and thrive as a cutter when Young draws ten defensive eyes.
Sometimes, it’s just a matter of fit. Murray was a square peg trying to fit into a round hole in Atlanta. His game and skillset were too established and versatile to play the reduced on-ball role needed next to Young.
Young is like an aircraft carrier within the Atlanta offense. Everything comes to him. Daniel's game is ideally crafted to fit and be amplified by the defensive attention Young commands. His cutting and defensive energy will endear him as a fan favorite in Atlanta, and I suspect his biggest fan will be Young.
Last year, during the 23/24 season, Atlanta gave up 120.5 points per game; only Washington gave up more.
They ranked in the bottom 5 in the league in:
Opponents Made FGs.
Opponents Made Threes.
Opponents FG% and 3P%.
They know they’re allowed to try on that end of the court, right?! Daniels will help here, but he’s not a silver bullet.
I guess I’m banking on the fact that it can’t get worse on that end of the floor, can it?
Despite the abysmal defensive stats, their two most expensive players not fitting together, and lousy injury luck (MIP candidate Jalen Johnson missed 26 games due to injury), these Atlanta Hawks still amassed 36 wins.
With 19 games against Detroit, Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Chicago, this Atlanta squad has plenty of opportunities for wins.
Prediction: This team will easily cover the 35.5.
Don’t forget that Atlanta is circled on the calendar for players; we’re not talking about a road trip to Cleveland or Milwaukee. The city of Atlanta will always provide a few wins a year.
Milwaukee - 50.5 (3U OVER)
The 23/24 Bucks produced 49 wins during one of the most turbulent off-court seasons from a contender since the Brooklyn Nets employed KD and Kyrie.
Within a 365-day window, Milwaukee turned its world upside down multiple times:
Championship-winning former coach; gone.
New coach with a second-place record after 43 games; gone.
The newly hired coach publicly says he didn’t want to take the job.
Newly acquired superstar Damian Lillard begins his divorce proceedings.
Kris Middleton’s comeback from surgery is less than ideal.
Some of this harm was self-inflicted, while others were out of their control. Either way, the damage was done, but even with said damage, this team still produced 49 wins.
Milwaukee’s Core 5 are the same as last year: Giannis, Dame, Lopez, Middleton, and Portis. The optimistic view would be that the growing pains of learning to play together have subsided, paving the way for cohesive and exciting basketball in the land of Beer and Cheese.
Lord knows low-hanging fruit is available to Milwaukee via the Giannis and Dame two-man game action.
No matter how poorly the previous 365 days went in Milwaukee, Horst and his staff knocked this offseason out of the park. Significantly upgrading the ancillary parts around the Bucks Core 5 players:
Malik Beasley → Gary Trent Jr.
Patrick Beverly → Delon Wright
Jae Crowder → Taurean Prince
All three of these swaps are upgrades for regular and postseason basketball; this Milwaukee team is a legitimate threat to win an NBA title.
Trent Jr. gives you a close enough facsimile to Beasley shooting-wise, plus a little more ball-handling and creation as a 2nd side playmaker.
Wright was hidden away from the casual NBA fan during his time in D.C., but sickos like me who watched Washington games saw he was outstanding. He consistently plays adult basketball, and his defensive tenacity and offensive self-awareness fit perfectly into what this Milwaukee team is all about.
Apex Jae Crowder is a better player than Prince; the only problem is that version of Crowder has yet to make it out of Phoenix. Prince will be tasked with being an innings eater in the 3&D role, taking wear and tear off Middleton, Giannis, and Portis.
Add up the coaching and player continuity, *hopefully* injury regression, and the three role-player swaps, and you’ve got a 53+ win team.
Prediction: Milwaukee covers the over, and it’s not coming down to the wire; they’ll cover it with room to spare.
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New York - 53.5 (3U UNDER)
53.5 wins is a significant number, but I’m not buying it; this math just doesn’t math.
Last season, New York was a 50-win team. Vegas is telling me they are somehow 3.5 wins better after:
Losing Isaiah Hartenstein, a 7-footer who is an elite rebounder, passer, and teammate, for nothing.
Trading in almost all their chips for a wing, Maliki Bridges, whose skill set is semi-redundant.
Bring back a big Julius Randle, who doesn’t fill any of the holes left by Hartenstein and possesses another semi-redundant skill set.
I’m not buying it.
What Hartenstein brought to the table as a hub in the half-court unlocked this roster in a way that Robinson and Randle will not be able to duplicate.
Each Randle and Robinson bring a specific Hartenstein element to the Knicks' offense: Robinson, the offensive rebounding, and Randle, the ball-handling and passing.
But basketball isn’t an exercise about the aggregate of what you have on the roster; it’s about having five players who play complementary basketball. The better their skill sets complement one another, the greater the compounding effect.
The 23/24 New York Knicks were a perfect mix of complementary parts: one alpha dog primary ball handler in Brunson and a rotating mix of complementary off-ball role players who each brought a specific skill that helped to amplify Brunson’s on-ball presence and had their skills amplified by it.
A mix like this is unique, and they turned The Garden into a basketball nirvana for all New Yorkers during the spring of 2024.
While Brunson was the straw that stirred the New York Negroni, Hartenstein was the ice, and without ice, any drink falls short of its potential.
The Hartenstein lineups crushed! The only lineup that wasn’t a “+” for New York was the one that contained three guys who all felt they needed the ball in their hands to succeed (Brunson, Barrett, and Randle).
Prediction: Under, by just a bit. Without Hartenstein, this version of the New York Knicks will fall just short, just like any Negroni from somewhere other than Dante’s in the West Village.
** This was written before the KAT trade. The NYK win total is now 54.5.
My opinion doesn’t change on the under for the regular season. This trade was made with the playoffs and, specifically, the Boston Celtics in mind.
KAT is one of the few players in the league whose shooting ability in PnR action can cause problems for Boston’s defense. I wrote extensively about this issue last season; here is the piece if you want to check it out.
Charlotte - 29.5 (3U Over)
Adult basketball is coming to The Queen City—well, at least the most adult version Charlotte has seen in quite some time.
For the first time in a long time, Charlotte will have a group of players who are capable of playing adult basketball AND staying healthy at the same time.
In previous seasons, Charlotte had the necessary veterans, but they couldn’t stay healthy enough to play the minutes required to influence the younger players.
Add in the considerable generational divide between Steve Clifford and the Gen-Z-heavy roster, and it was a recipe for a complete detachment from any “care factor” on the court.
Hiring Charles Lee dramatically changes the status quo in Charlotte:
His success in Boston will give him the cachet needed to get total buy-in from the young vets on the roster.
The Charlotte offense will no longer be in the league's bottom half in 3PA per game.
Guys like Grant Williams, Miles Bridges (he’s pretty good at basketball, and I guess the NBA is okay with him playing), Cody Martin, and Josh Green know that winning here will cement their status in the league and almost guarantee they will reach the 10-year pension mark.
These young vets will be expected to be the adults in the room, setting the standard for young talent like Ball, Williams, and Miller.
Miller is the crown jewel prospect, a 6’9" wing who’s shown he has the potential to become an apex predator1 wing that every NBA team is constantly falling over themselves to acquire.
If Miller can take the second-year leap, a common trend among superstars, he will establish Charlotte as a serious team—something the Queen City has longed for since the days of Zo, Mugsy, and LJ.
Prediction: Over. Miller takes the leap; Lee pops as a coach, and serious basketball is returning to Charlotte (at some point in the future).
Orlando - 47.5 (3U Under)
Orlando snuck up on teams early last year. They weren’t just the hunter; they were camouflaged, sneaking up on their prey. This season that won’t be the case; everyone sees them coming, and they will get their opponent’s full attention nightly.
Orlando plays hard every game, which is not always a common trait during the NBA’s grueling 82-game season. Mosley has complete buy-in from his guys; you can see it on full display anytime you turn on an Orlando game; his guys would run through a brick wall for him!
This commitment to Mosley and playing hard every game helped Orlando dominate opponents during the 23/24 season in statistical categories that reflect their punch-first nature:
Free Throws Attempted - First.
Fouls Drawn - First
Steals - 5th
At some point, their shooting becomes too much to overcome; you must be able to shoot the ball as a team.
Calling Orlando’s shooting numbers anemic is an understatement. Here’s a snapshot of the Orlando shooting shortcomings during the 23/24 season:
3 Pointers Made - Last.
3 Pointers Attempted - Second to Last.
3 Point Percentage - 24th.
Turnovers - 24th.
To summarize, they don’t shoot many threes and don’t shoot them well—not exactly a potent combination in today's NBA. And yes, the turnovers are related to the shooting. Too often, Orlando players will turn down open shots and force drives into compressed defenses.
No one was a bigger culprit of these turnovers than Paolo Banchero, who finished in the Top 10 during the regular season with 3.1 per game and led the playoffs with 4.6 per game.
Unless something has drastically changed within Banchero’s shooting mechanics or his appetite for taking three-point shots has shifted, I can’t see this team making a giant leap forward.
Prediction: Under, by a hair. This one will be a sweat till the final day of the season. Mosley’s guys play hard, and in the NBA, that’s worth at least .500 when you have decent talent. Plus, they play Brooklyn, Washington, and Detroit twelve times.
The Leftovers:
All picks are valued at 0.5 units unless otherwise noted. In alphabetical order:
Brooklyn - 19.5
Redemption arc time for a Ben Simmons and Killian Hayes backcourt, am I right?!?
Prop: Over/Under 3.5 Years:
How long until the Nets reach a higher average attendance than the Liberty?
Prediction: Under (on the wins, not the Liberty attendance number).
Boston - 58.5
An easy line here would be that championship fatigue will set in, and the under is good value. However, Steve Kerr almost guaranteed the over when he hit Tatum with multiple DNP-CDs over the summer in Paris.
Prop: Over/Under 39.5 Points:
Tatum’s average points scored vs. Golden State this season?
Prediction: Over (On both!)
Chicago - 30.5
If a team dies in August, does anyone notice till the All-Star break?
Chicago’s basketball team is the living embodiment of the football phrase: if you have two quarterbacks, you have zero quarterbacks.
It’s tough to find a clear direction here. Are they rebuilding around the young guys: Giddey, Williams, White, and Ayo?
Or are they trying to be competitive around LaVine, Vuc, and Ball?
This isn’t a new question; it’s the same one that’s existed for the past two years.
Prop: Who is the first to depart from the Chicago organization, LaVine or Donovan?
Prediction: Under. The United Center is one of the best places in the world to watch basketball when Chicago is rolling; maybe in a few years, it’ll come back to life.
Cleveland - 47.5
The Kenny Adkinson bump is coming.
Stagged lineups. No more Donovan Mitchell trade talk.
The Mobley jumper isn’t on the way, but I believe Adkinson will stagger him and Allen enough to allow Mobley's unique passing and ball-handling to flourish at the five, his best position.
Prediction: Over. It won’t be close.
Detroit - 24.5
What will be the minute distribution between the young prospects and the established vets?
Whatever your answer here will determine your number.
Nothing about JB’s previous stops makes me believe he’s on board for giving out minutes just for the hell of it.
Detroit will over-perform early in the season due to JB grabbing the lowest-hanging fruit of competent defense, more minutes to vets rather than rookie and second-year players, and a staggering Cade and Ivey.
Check out my deep dives on Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey if you want some Detroit content.
Prediction: Over, somewhere in the 27-29 range. JB rolls with the vets early, then plays the young prospects more after the trade deadline.
Indiana - 46.5
A team that knows exactly who they are, has a clear pecking order, and gained a wave of confidence during its run to the Eastern Conference finals—sign me up for that.
Prediction: Over. This is a 50-win team.
Miami - 44.5
Why the regression from a 46-win team to a 44-win team here?
Vegas is counting on a rising tide of improvement in the Eastern Conference around Miami, which includes New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Orlando, and Indiana.
I feel different here, not totally, but enough that I believe Miami can get there. Turning over the keys to Bam to run a fully optimized Hub-based offense like Jokic or Sabonis would do wonders here.
Bam’s ball-handing and passing ability can unlock many fun two and three-man game actions with Miami’s wings.
Prediction: Over. Miami leans into Bam as a hub. Contract year Jimmy is pretty good. Rozier and Herro have better injury luck. The city of Miami and LIV catch a few teams (as always) on their off days.
Philadelphia - 52.5
One thing about Embiid and Philadelphia is that they always take advantage of the opportunity to grab low-hanging fruit.
Death, taxes, and Joel Embiid putting up big numbers in wins versus sub-30-win teams like Brooklyn, Detroit, Portland, and Washington. These are the things you can book in life as guarantees.
Yet, something about this number feels too high for them. I expect an adjustment period for their new big three, resulting in them dropping a few too many games to the mid-tier teams like Atlanta, Memphis, Indiana, and San Antonio.
Prediction: Under. Integrating PG requires an adjustment period. There is little depth, and the odds of injuries make this number too high.
Washington - 20.5
This roster does not fit, but it’s not 20 wins bad.
There are enough vets that would prefer to get traded to a contender than stay in Washington for another season; therefore, they’ll play hard until they are moved before the trade deadline.
Prediction: The work must be done early on the 20.5. This number might be in trouble if Washington doesn’t have at least 18 wins by the All-Star break. However, the vets' motivation to get out will be strong enough to carry them through to 18 and close to the 20 mark by the time the break rolls around.
Apex Predator Definition - A player 6’8 or above with a smooth shooting stroke, the ability to be a primary ball-handler in PnR actions, and the fire to compete on the defensive end of the floor.