Could New York Or Los Angeles Derail A Boston and Oklahoma City Finals?
I filled in for Tim Legler on the All-NBA podcast with Adam Mares today. We dug into the New York vs. Boston in the Garden (playoff preview?), Oklahoma City's spurtability and Minnesota's collapse.
I’ve attached some notes, edits, and big-picture stats from these two potential playoff matchups.
Big Picture Questions
I came at this from the POV of the two teams who would most likely not be favored in a series if these teams matched up. Boston and Oklahoma City are the two teams with the best title odds in the NBA; they have the highest probability of making up in the Finals.
New York Vs. Boston:
How can New York put Boston’s defense in a bad spot over the course of a series?
Towns Post Up Mismatches:
Boston often puts a wing on Towns to allow Porzingis to roam as a help defender to contest shots. When this happens, can Towns bully his way into making Boston send a double?
Last night, we saw a concerted effort from New York and Towns specifically to post when guarded by a non-five-man defender. Towns had nine direct post-up actions last night, his second most on the season, and scored 1.222 points per post.
Threes are greater than twos; that’s the Boston way. But if shots aren’t falling and Towns can inflict enough damage, it could make Boston sweat a little.
Tatum and Holiday provide the most resistance where you can feel good about leaving them on an island. While Brown and White make it feel like Towns is going through a pregame warm-up.
Can Hart and Bridges do enough that Porzingis (or another big) can't “hide” on him. This involves him making some shots from the premier and being a two-man game partner with Brunson to get into the pocket and be a playmaker.
Brunson’s ability to shoot the ball off the dribble demands that the player guarding the screener be up at the level. This gives New York its best chance at creating defensive rotations and playing 4v3 advantage basketball.
When Boston stashes Porzingis on Hart or Bridges, it’s imperative that New York gets them in two-man game action with Brunson to start this chain reaction.
Hart is the barometer for this New York team, and good things happen when he’s flying around playmaking and screening. It's advantage to the defense when he's stationary and relegated to a spot-up three-point shooter.
WHERE DO YOU STAND ON FOULING UP 3.
Where do you stand on fouling up three points? It feels like a hitting on 16 situations—you have to live by a code. Can't just go by your emotions, or can you?!
Los Angels Vs. Oklahoma City
Is Luka the one player Oklahoma City would least like to see in a playoff series?
The simple answer is yes.
With Luka and Oklahoma City, it comes down to defending the PnR action and why Luka’s average PnR distance makes him the biggest problem for Oklahoma City because you can't go under.
He’s one of the few players in the NBA who will automatically shoot it when you go under at 30 feet, and you don’t feel good about him missing it, either!
In Los Angeles's last two games in Oklahoma City, Luka recorded an angered PnR distance of 30.5 feet from the basket. In the first game, he scored 1.16 points per direct PnR, and in the second, a blistering 1.444 PPD, his 7th highest total on the season.
Being able to shoot from this deep when under forces Oklahoma City to extend their defensive shell and open up space for players like James, Reeves, and Finney-Simth to attack.
During the playoffs last year, when Luka eliminated Oklahoma City, his average PnR distance was 30 feet away, and in three of the four wins, he recorded blitz rates of 26.8, 21, and 21.
That leaves a lot of space for teammates to play 4v3 advantage basketball!
When Luka was ejected last night, Los Angeles led 108-107. Then the floodgates open. OKC pulls their starters with a score of 133-116.
A 19-4 run fueled by defenses and SGA buckets to take a close game to a blowout. Oklahoma City outscored Los Angeles 26-8 after Luka was thrown out. OKC was able to bother them with defensive pressure, unlike any time Luka was on the floor.
