Sacramento vs. Golden State is a rematch of one of the best first-round playoff matchups during the 2023 Playoffs, in which Golden State won Game 7 on Sacramento’s home court by 20 points—propelled by a Steph Curry fifty-ball.
Los Angeles and New Orleans is a rematch of a Final-4 game from the NBA Cup earlier this season, in which Los Angeles thumped New Orleans 133 - 89 on their way to winning the inaugural NBA Cup.
The Epicenters:
The most effective shots in basketball are at the rim.
Therefore, the goal is to get as close to the basket as possible. That’s where you are generally more effective than any other spot on the court. The more space there is to attack, the harder it is for the defense to stop you. To create space, you must be able to shoot.
This is why I believe shooting is the meta-skill of the game. It’s the tide that raises all ships by opening up the most offensive optionality for individuals and teams.
The Western Conference Play-In matchups tonight will feature two unique and devastating offensive hubs, Zion Williamson and Domantas Sabonis, who can wreck regular-season game plans by getting close to the basket.
However, neither Williamson nor Sabonis is a threat to beat you, shooting the ball from the perimeter. That’s where the problems arise during the playoffs when teams change their defensive focus from GTO coverages to FEP ones.
We have seen games of significant meaning between these teams within the last year. This means we got to see how these teams see each other through more than just regular-season GTO coverages lens; we got to see the good stuff, the FEP coverages.
A defense can’t take away everything; every coverage gives up something. Picking your defensive scheme is about making a bet based on the evidence. It’s on the offense to find solutions and execute.
Zion Williamson:
Zion is as unique as any physical presence that has entered the league in the past twenty years. No one drafted in the past twenty years has the physical ability to stand up to him one-on-one. Unfortunately for New Orleans, Lebron James is in his 21st year and still kicking.
James might be the only person in the league who has a chance to hold up physically on Williamson’s drives, and he’s undoubtedly the only person on planet Earth that I’ve seen take multiple charges during a single game on Williamson.
Both of the charges James took on Williamson during the Final-4 matchup in Las Vegas
Los Angeles had a clear game plan during their Final 4 match-up with New Orleans: Give Williamson any shot he wants from 15 feet and out.
James sat in the lane the entire game and just waited. He allowed Williamson as much space as he wanted outside the lane to dribble without pressure, but James met him with resistance once he broke the 15-foot barrier.
James executing the Los Angeles FEP coverage scheme of playing OFF Williamson.
Williamson is 7th in the league this season with 17 drives per game; those actions typically create help situations, leading to defensive rotations and easy looks for his teammates, aka offensive optionality. Taking most of those drives away was a shock to the New Orleans system, and the team was out of sync all night.
I expect Los Angeles to play the same coverage tonight on Williamson as they did in Las Vegas back in December. It was effective, and New Orleans will need an answer tonight if they want to win and advance to the Playoffs.
(DHOs for your best shooters are always a good choice here; they must be run with speed and ferocity to make James play for playing so far back. I would love to see a steady diet of Murphy or even Hawkins in those actions with Williamson.)
Domantas Sabonis:
A key to Sacramento's turnaround last season was the decision to feature Sabonis as a primary ball handler and invert their offense to feature handoff actions above all else. This took advantage of Sabonis’s unique blend of ball-handling, vision, and physicality. Four Sacramento players ranked in the top 15 for handoffs per game during that season.
These handoffs powered Sacramento to the best NBA offense ever; it was their team’s offensive epicenter. However, in the playoffs, Golden State found a pressure point within that action and deployed an FEP coverage that powered them to a series victory in 2023.
By Game 5, Golden State decided to give Sabonis any outside shot he wanted by dropping his primary defender (Loony or Green) so far off of him into the lane and creating a funnel into said defender.
They did their work on the perimeter early (shot out Coach Rob!) by top-locking the Sacramento guards, preventing them from even getting into handoff actions. Top-locking gives up backcuts, but this was fine with Loony or Green playing so deep in the lane.
If a Sacramento guard already had the ball and got into a PnR action with Sabonis, they would “down” it. Funneling the ball to Sabonis’s defender, who was waiting in the lane.
If a Sacramento guard beat the top lock and got into a handoff, they would lock + trail the player trying to funnel the ball downhill into Sabonis’s waiting defender.
Golden State had a clear plan.
Golden State executing their FEP coverage scheme of playing OFF Sabonis.
Golden State’s coverage schemes were a bet that Sacramento didn’t want the shots they were willing to give up: Saboins jumpers or ISO attacks.
They were willing to give those types of shots up in rhythm and on balance but nothing else; any other shot for a Sacramento player would have to be a contested tough bucket.
Williamson and Saboins will see the same FEP coverage schemes tonight.
Steph Curry & LeBron James:
Curry and James are their teams' offensive hubs, but unlike Williamson and Sabonis, these two can effectively shoot the ball from the outside, creating optionality within their team's offense.
Two-man games are the center of modern NBA offense and, therefore, have become the center of FEP coverage schemes. Curry and James force a secondary defender to be involved at the level of the actions when playing two-man games. If not, they’ll shoot and be excited about shooting (unlike Williamson and Sabonis).
Curry and James's requirement of a secondary defender to come to the level of two-man games leads to offensive optionality for their team.
The ability to command a secondary defender at the level leads to optionality within an offense. It creates the opportunity for passes that can lead to 4v3 attacking opportunities, creating help and rotation situations for the whole team to play off of.
All this fun stuff is created by one's ability to shoot the basketball, the meta-skill.
2024 Play-In Games:
Los Angeles and Golden State can deploy FEP coverages that cut off all the other spokes on the wheel. Yes, Williamson and Saboins have opportunities to attack and score, but they will not create defensive rotations leading to open shots or advantage attacks for their teammates.
This is the most significant difference between the four offensive hubs featured in tonight’s Western Conference Play-In Games.
It’s a one-off game, and anything can happen, but I’ll watch these matchups and coverages to see who controls the game most.
Sacramento and New Orleans know what’s coming. They’ve seen this movie before. Will they have answers this time around?
And another Zion charge taken by LeBron! This one obviously hurt a bit. Good call by you! Zero fear from the elder statesman...